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It was above all the overload of hospital care that sent Campania from the yellow to the red zone in just one week, which made it rapidly climb the three epidemic risk levels identified by the algorithm developed by the Ministry’s Scientific-Technical Committee of health. They will have to spend two weeks to evaluate the trend of the parameters and verify the effects of the closure that began since last midnight. The photograph taken by the national monitoring, however, refers to the week from November 2 to 8 while a film that has already lasted a week is being shown. What has happened in the last seven days? Let’s look at the main parameters.
The Rt index, which indicates the diffusivity of the infection, understood as the ability of the virus to increase the number of positive cases in a predefined time interval, is decreasing this week. A trend that began last Monday with a fairly clear reverberation, especially in the intensive care employment rate that has remained substantially stable. In fact, in a week we went from 179 seats occupied on Saturday, November 7, to 184 yesterday. All in all, a modest growth compared to the uncontrolled progression recorded in the weeks leading up to November 8. The employment rate, compared to the number of vacancies available, actually fell to 28 percent, thus below the 30 percent cutoff value established among the 21 risk indicators. Here it should be clarified that the total number of resuscitation places indicated by the Civil Protection crisis unit refers to the entire structural provision of Campania, that is, it also counts the places of non-Covid medical and surgical intensive care units. The trend is not that stable in terms of medical jobs that grew instead of 10 percent. In summary, the situation in Campania in the last week is chiaroscuro: stable, in its severity, and tending to a slight slowdown in terms of progression of infections, intensive care and incidence per 100,000 inhabitants, but still in lateral difficulty. of ordinary places in hospitals. There is also an improvement in home care, which at a certain rate for each ASL guarantees a reduction in inappropriate access to the hospital.
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The timid slowdown of the Covid that is registered today in Campania, on the eve of the closure, is probably the result of the partial restrictions already activated a fortnight ago, but it is not enough by itself to allow a decongestion of the hospital network and a decrease in deaths . These will be the last to fall after the flood suffered throughout the month of October as a final result of the infections that occurred in most cases two or three weeks ago. In practice today the curve grows but in a linear way and no longer exponentially as in October and only when the TR falls below 1 will it be possible to identify the epidemic peak that will mark the real decline. Fundamental, for this step, is the quota of patients who are cured every day.
To go into details, on November 9, faced with a partial increase in the percentage of positive swabs, there were only 5 more admissions to intensive care and an Rt index in sharp decline to 1.36 while on Friday despite the record of swabs the percentage of positives dropped one point to 16 percent and intensive care dropped from 192 to 183. With yesterday’s data, deaths dropped from 40 to 24, intensive care is almost stable and there are 73 hospitalizations for a total of 2,080 Finally, again yesterday the absolute Rt index fell for the first time in weeks to less than 1 (0.98). But beware, this is the value calculated on all the positives and not only on the symptomatic ones that the Higher Institute of Health uses as a corrector for the absolute value of this parameter. Considering the number of symptoms compared to the positive ones, we have that in the last week this value has almost doubled, compensating for the decrease in Rt.
Last Updated: November 15, 08:00 © REPRODUCTION RESERVED
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