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The professor maintains that the gatherings and greater contacts in closed places have certainly contributed to restart the virus from the end of September, but also to the opening of schools, transport, the mass return to work and partly also elections. administrative. The teacher is called Michela Baccini, is Professor of Medical Statistics at the University of Florence and, since the beginning of the pandemic with a group of colleagues and researchers, examine the data on infections in Tuscany. «We have developed statistical models different from those declared by the Higher Institute of Health. And I emphasize it declared because even today it is not clear how they are calculated and therefore a little more transparency would be needed.
How are yours calculated?
«Our models take into account not positives but deaths, figures that have the advantage of being more stable and having a constant definition over time. And above all they do not depend on the number of swabs performed, which are variable and therefore more cases are equivalent to a greater number of tests performed and vice versa.
What do your calculations say in Tuscany?
“That there is a stabilization of the level of contagion. Until mid-October the growth of Rt was increasing strongly, now it has stopped and there is probably also a slight decrease, although it will be some time before we have this confirmation.
So could we wait before declaring Tuscany red?
“I think it would have been better to wait a few more days, also because a short time before we had gone from yellow to orange. These sudden changes do not help people to understand the situation.
Do you think proper planning is lacking?
“I have the impression that attempts are being made.”
What, in your opinion, caused this jump in infections?
“Various factors. Certainly the gatherings but not only. Crowded transports have been a high vehicle for infection, perhaps even local elections that have led people to travel home to vote. And then, sorry, the school too.
Wouldn’t the schools have reopened?
“Just the nursery and elementary schools. For the others, just planning a proper screening before and during the start of the school year.
What about him?
“I agree with the closure of crowded malls, but I am more perplexed with the stores. Unfortunately we do not have enough information to understand which situations and places are most at risk.
What are the right strategies for a quiet Christmas?
«Adopt strategies for the future that, unfortunately, have not yet been adopted. It is not possible to play the “game of colors”, to go from one to another without evaluating the measures previously taken. And then we need an appropriate surveillance strategy: repeat and non-point testing, adequate and massive follow-up. ”
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