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Directed closures, without total closure, compliance with safety distances and capacity limits within the facilities. A study by researchers from Northwestern University and Stanford University, carried out by mapping the movements of 98 million people, allows the development of strategies to combat the spread of Covid infections, with infection risk patterns in different cities. From the study, published this Tuesday in the journal Nature, a fact emerges: the indiscriminate opening of restaurants, gyms and hotels implies a greater risk of spreading the virus. But total blocking is useless: rules and patterns of behavior are needed.
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American Research
American scholars used data collected between March and May in cities in the US Through an application on their mobile phones, they tracked movements, travel times and stays in various places, meetings, areas visited. They then cross-referenced this information with data on the total number of cases in the US and on how the virus spreads. And they managed to create “infection patterns.” In Chicago, for example, reopening restaurants at full capacity would generate about 600,000 new infections. This type of data «shows us where there is vulnerability»said Eric Topol of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. Although, according to Marc Lipsitch of Harvard’s TH Chan School of Public Health, these models can be a starting point to guide policy decisions about reopening.
In fact, the study shows that a complete block would not be necessary to keep the spread of the virus in check. While the use of masks, social distancing and capacity limits in stores, supermarkets and restaurants are essential. One example: the research, always taking the example of Chicago and restaurants, highlights how a simultaneous admissions limit set at 20% can reduce expected new infections by 80%. US scientists suggest that measures of this type, directed and studied according to the situation, are much more effective than indiscriminate closures. Not to mention the financial benefits. «We need to think of strategies to reactivate the economy»said Jure Leskovec, a computer scientist at Stanford University and the study’s author.
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The stages
American researchers tested various reopening scenarios. There is no doubt about a point: without virus containment measures, the prognosis is that one third of the population will be infected. The objective of the research is to predict epidemiological trajectories, act in advance with specific measures and study the effectiveness of the containment measures applied at each moment, analyzing the contagion curves. The example of Miami is given: Infections, especially inside hotels, peaked at the same time that the city was invaded by wild beach parties. But the curves have narrowed significantly with the entry into force of the lockdown measures.
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The study also highlights a disparity in infections between income groups: for low-income groups, according to the researchers, the risk of contracting the infection would be higher, because they are more likely to visit smaller and more crowded places. and you are less likely to cut back on travel. While another study by JPMorgan Chase & Co. shows that the level of spending in restaurants would be the most likely indicator of new infections. While in the areas where you spend the most in supermarkets, it means that people prefer to stay indoors, the spread of the virus would be slower.
Last updated: 14:15
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