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The coronavirus epidemic in Italy is starting to slow its growth. And although it is still too early to speak of a consolidated trend, also because in the meantime the million cases in Italy have passed since the beginning of the pandemic, some small signs of optimism eliminate the possibility that the national closure will be decreed (but it is possible that during the weekend more restrictions were enacted) the experts explain that it is not a question of a descent of the curve but a reduction in the speed of growth.
Why the coronavirus epidemic is slowing down (and this could avoid lockdown)
Let’s start with the numbers. The Civil Protection bulletin yesterday reported the huge figure of 623 dead and 32961 infected. Although the percentage of positive swabs at present is not very indicative of the speed of spread of the epidemic, from Monday to Wednesday there were 93,000 cases, compared to 81,000 on the same days of the previous week. An increase that from Palazzo Chigi, counts today Republic, defines “content”. Also from the parts of the presidency of the Council of Ministers also say that in the week of November 7 the positives did not double, but increased “only” by 25.4%. It must be said that at this rate we will not avoid the collapse of the hospitals, which in fact is already underway, as shown by the analysis of the data of the Ministry of Health carried out by Fadoi, the scientific society of hospital internists, which is assuming the 70 %. of Covid patients.
Because if about two-thirds of the beds provided are already occupied by Covid patients, the rest of the places are in turn occupied by other types of patients, for whom the supply of beds is currently largely insufficient compared to the demand. assistance. From an analysis of the data referred to November 10 (28,633 hospitalized), 68% of the beds in medical services (out of a total of 39,910, of which 29,923 only in Internal Medicine) are effectively occupied by Covid patients. Much more than 40% indicated by the Higher Institute of Health as a safety threshold, given that other diseases with the pandemic do not go on vacation and the need for hospitalization of other patients remains unchanged and the degree of saturation of the beds is good beyond what is communicated.
But behind these numbers there are also more. In the graph you see published above, published on Facebook by Professor Riccardo Puglisi from the University of Pavia, it is shown that yesterday the places occupied in intensive care increased by 110 units, from 2,971 to 3,081, that is, 3.7% And you do see that the number of cases requiring ventilation is falling from the peak in late October. It must be said that we are talking about places in intensive care, while according to the Fadoi survey in terms of admissions, the threshold of total exhausted in most hospitals has already been exceeded. The figure becomes more dramatic when the magnifying glass is focused on individual regions, with Piedmont (164.4% of beds occupied by Covid patients), Valle d’Aosta (191.7%) and Liguria (105.3%) Not only have they already exhausted all the places in the medical area but, precisely because they have occupancy rates higher than 100%, for some time they have used beds in departments of other disciplines, such as surgery, orthopedics, and cardiology.
The peak of the epidemic in mid-November?
And again the numbers from the Fadoi survey show that of the nearly 30,000 beds in internal medicine wards, 70% are occupied by Covid patients. A rapidly growing percentage. The same survey shows that, to regain control of the situation in hospitals, it would be necessary to cool the growth of the contagion curve. This is due to the fact that despite the high number of beds occupied by Covid patients, the rate of admission of positives, including both those assisted in the medical area and in intensive care, remains low at the national level: around 5, 8% of those infected. But there are also other data: those of Professor Paolo Spada on the Optimism Pills page say that “the variation of the new cases registered in the last seven days, compared to the previous seven, was equal to + 18.7% (yesterday was + 20.8%, the day before + 21.2%, even before + 23%, + 27.5%, + 32.1%, + 38.1%. To be clear: when the value is equal to 0% means that the number of new cases remains constant, if it is negative it means that the curve is down) “. And again: “the global percentage increase over the total number of hospitalized patients in these seven days was + 33.1%, while the change in the seven days compared to the previous seven was + 2.7% (yesterday it was + 5%, the day before + 13.9%, before that + 9.3%, + 6.9%, + 8.8%, + 16.3%.
The latest data on the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy “confirm some positive signs, not in terms of a drop in the” contagion curve “, but a reduction in the growth rate. Therefore, we can think that some effects they are being produced by the new Dpcm and the modulated restrictions based on 3 different risk bands ”, also according to what the virologist of the Milan State University Fabrizio Pregliasco told Adnkronos Salute yesterday, who when reading the epidemic trend sees an element of hope: “It is likely that the curve is approaching its peak, a peak that could be reached next week – estimates the expert – after the 15th, between 18 and 20”.
Total block is not avoided, but …
Before a ray of light related to the reduction in the growth of new Sars-CoV-2 infections, and especially with the decrease in the positive / swab ratio, however, hospitalizations and unfortunately also deaths continue to increase: “This it is the saddest part, linked to the effects of the growth that we have had in the last 15 days “, Pregliasco explains. And although by the end of the week, based on the data flow of the Regions, greater restrictions are expected – with new areas that could change from yellow to orange or red – looking at the numbers of these hours, the virologist believes that “the strategy adopted can continue. The signs are there ”, repeats the medical director of Irccs Galeazzi in Milan. Corriere della Sera also writes that the scientists Brusaferro, Locatelli and Miozzo, summoned by the prime minister to understand if the curve of the virus has really started to bend under the blows of the restrictive measures adopted by the government.
Yes, graphics in hand, the trio of technicians confirmed the impressions of the last few days to the Chief Executive, the heads of delegation and Minister Boccia: Covid-19 has begun to slow down its mad rush. Infections continue to increase, it is true, but growth is no longer exponential.
And again: as we have said, Cesare Cislaghi, epidemiologist economist, as well as former president of the Italian Association of Epidemiology in the pages of Corriere della Sera Yesterday he clarified the “race” of the virus in Italy: “There is a timid sign that it is not getting worse, the incidence of new positive cases seems to stabilize.” The numbers say that “the contagion curve is always fast but the increase does not increase. Now there is a linear trend rather than exponential.” Roberto Battiston, a physicist at the University of Trento and former president of the Italian Space Agency, says the same to the Republic today: “The epidemic is slowing down and a projection based on current data places the peak at November 27″: ” The growth rate is still positive but points downward, this means that infections continue to increase but now they are pumped up, with a gradually reduced speed. At this rate – concludes Battiston – the growth rate will turn negative on 27 November. And that day could be the peak of active infections with about 827 thousand cases “.
To date, we cannot say whether this slowdown is lasting and, as we have seen, we are sadly far from avoiding the collapse of hospitals. But the slowdown in growth (not its conclusion) is perhaps due to the effects of the October and November Dpcm. Therefore, this is not the time to shout at the end of the emergency, but to notice that the restrictions are working. The total blockade is not avoided, while some regions are already expanding the tightening precisely to slow the growth of the epidemic and, therefore, the collapse of hospitals. But the news is that we can do it and there are positive signs. But we must always remember that it is not over until it is over.
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