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Dario Martini
The great puzzle of epidemiological data from which report cards are delivered to the regions continues. The now famous 21 indicators by virtue of which the yellow, orange and red zones are assigned. And that corresponds to more or less restrictive measures. The data, processed by the Higher Institute of Health and by the control room, if taken individually, are clear. What remains obscure is the synthesis that is made of this large amount of data. What the experts of the ISS and the Ministry of Health call “the algorithm”. From the weekly “follow-up” that was made public yesterday, in fact, we are faced with Regions that are at risk of going from yellow to orange. And others, with the same parameters and the same risk assessment, which remain in yellow.
The most emblematic case is that of Campania. The president of the ISS, Silvio Brusaferro, said he has no reason to believe that the data received is not reliable. However, ministry technicians were dispatched to the territory to determine any critical issues and understand if there is any data that has been overlooked. It is striking, in fact, that precisely in the region where its governor wanted to close everything down, the State did not consider it appropriate to adopt tougher measures.
The follow-up that runs from October 26 to November 1 is the last that is considered “consolidated.” It is the one according to which other 5 Regions have already turned orange: Abruzzo, Basilicata, Liguria, Tuscany and Umbria. However, this report also assigns the same level of risk to Campania and Lazio. However, the former is about to turn up in color, while the Zingaretti region remains yellow. There is a difference, however. It is the Rt index, the indicator that measures the contagion rate. In Campania it is equal to 1.64, close to the national average of 1.7, a level considered critical. In Lazio, however, it is 1.2, so it is still relatively low. However, the situation in Lazio hospitals is not calm. Departments break down, but the rate is still low. As if the infections were few, but much more serious than in other places. Among other things, Abruzzo – since yesterday “orange” – has an “Rt” of 1.51, lower than that of Campania. And the “red” Calabria has it even lower, equal to 1.41. Not to mention the Liguria orange: 1.37.
In fact, this indicator alone is not enough to worsen the overall assessment. The occupancy rate for intensive care beds, in fact, is almost the same: 23% in Campania and 20% in Lazio (it is good that this percentage remains below 30%). The same applies to employment in the medical areas: 31% Campania and 34% in Lazio (the level not to be exceeded is 40%). In both cases, the risk of exceeding the critical threshold is considered to be 50%. Other less important indicators could also be listed, but the result remains the same. That is, in both Campania and Lazio, the “risk rating” is considered “moderate with a high probability of progression to high risk”. The same general risk classification for Marche and Molise, which are still yellow, and the same for Emilia Romagna and Veneto, which instead the ISS would like to turn orange.
Ultimately, what has not yet been explained is how the data is considered globally. The so-called algorithm, in fact. A few days ago, Prime Minister Conte had assured that a rule would be included in the Ristori bis decree that would help “to make the monitoring mechanism even more clear and transparent, so that the scientific community and all citizens can access this information.” . The rule, in fact, has been inserted. It is article 31 that refers to the “publication of the results of the monitoring of the data related to the epidemiological emergency of COvid-19”. But it doesn’t leave any clarity. It provides a didactic description of the legislative acts and the subjects in charge of drawing conclusions. However, there is no shadow of the algorithm.
All that remains is to resign. And trust the “conclusions” contained in the latest weekly report from the Ministry. Where it is considered necessary throughout Italy “the drastic reduction of physical interactions between people”. And he warns himself: “It is essential to stay home as long as possible.”
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