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Campania remains in the yellow zone. The answer comes after the preliminary investigation of the control room that met to review the Campania case. A more precise survey on the data of the Covid-19 epidemic carried out in close contact with those responsible for the technical area of the Campania Crisis Unit. The numbers are stable and the risk is moderate. Therefore, there are no changes in the table of restrictions while those already added on his own initiative by President Vincenzo De Luca (the stop at school and the brake on interprovincial trips) remain in force.
The editorial of the director Federico Monga
So what are the numbers of the epidemic in Campania on which the decision was ratified? Let’s start with the infectivity index, which is the ability of the Coronavirus to make infections grow in a week. From October 26 to November 1 (with data later updated to 3) Campania marks a Rt value of 1.64. A high index, located above the threshold of 1.5 considered critical. This means having shredded about 60 percent more infections. Also noteworthy is the incidence rate of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants (measured in the last 14 days), placed in seventh place immediately behind the hottest regions. Outbreaks are also on the rise, so much so that a Type 4 scenario is drawn indicating major critical issues. Why then, with these premises, has not the passage occurred in the orange or even red zone? «The key concept – warns Antonio Salvatore, head of the Department of Health of Anci Campania – is resilience, that is, the ability of the health system as a whole to respond with all its resources to the epidemic shock wave. And here the numbers are still within limits. They are also counting the restrictions introduced with the local red zones (the municipalities of Caserta and Arzano), which have proven to be effective in reducing the incidence, but the maintenance of beds in the medical and intensive care area is crucial ”.
The premise is that this figure is energized by the continuous conversion in the Covid zone of beds in “peacetime” used for other functions. The latest arrivals are the approximately 1,300 beds provided by the network of accredited nursing homes and religious hospitals (which in turn have a total of about 5,000 available). The total total beds in Campania is in fact 18,000. Of these, for now, dedicated to Covid 19 (ordinary and sub-intensive hospitalization) are 3,160 of which 31 percent are employed, at the date of the follow-up. We are therefore below the 40 limit. Intensive care is a more rigid container: the benchmark is the total number of resuscitation beds available in Campania, which has gone from 383 last spring to 590 today. Of these, 23 percent are employed, again in the week under review by the ministry, and therefore within the 30 percent threshold established as a limit. Alerts and overload are few and therefore Campania remains in the yellow zone. The update with last week’s data will take place in seven days but we can already anticipate that the limits of the beds have been exceeded. However, it will be necessary to relate this parameter to the new RT, which has registered a significant decrease in recent days.
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And yesterday the virus race in Campania slowed down a bit: there are 2,716 cases compared to 3,120 the day before, which is equivalent to 19 percent positive for hyssop compared to 19.8 on Monday. Instead, there are 18 deaths. Only two more intensive care units but 112 new hospital admissions. «The growth – explains Nicola Fusco, Federico II’s Mathematics teacher – of exponential has become linear. In other words, the curve is now a straight line. The good news of yesterday refers to the cured: last Saturday the difference between new cases and those recovered in Italy was about 33 thousand, yesterday less than 17 thousand. The same is also true in Campania. Last Friday the difference between new and recovered cases was more than 4,400, yesterday it was 1,900. People who are no longer infected, evidently eliminated from the current positive count, able to perpetuate the infection and occupy beds by hiring medical attention. A fact that unites all the regions on which the temperate climate of these days could also have influenced.
Last update: November 11 at 12:31 © REPRODUCTION RESERVED
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