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The pressure on Palazzo Chigi to launch a new one is increasingly insistent national blockade over the weekend, from appeals coming in from doctors and nurses to the decision to include 5 more regions in the orange zone, to intelligence reports on social and health risks in the country. But if you look at the trend of the curves weekly, which is what matters most in statistical terms, start to see the first signs of improvement. From the number of contagion, which no longer increase as suddenly as in early October. In Lombardy, after new cases hit a record high in the middle of last month 213.8% Compared to the previous 7 days, the curve began to descend: until yesterday, when the increase in positives in 7 days was only 8.1% (today it rises to 12%, but the trend is towards stabilization). However, to better understand the data, a premise is necessary: the situation across the country remains dramatic, with deaths again above 500 and intensive therapy that, denounces the president of the ISS Silvio Brusaferro, they go towards saturation. All the consequences of the infections were verified two or three weeks ago, if we consider the average length of hospital stay of patients with Covid. Therefore, the figures for bed occupancy and deaths are bound to get worse. and again. What the weekly charts show is quite trend, positive as it may be, which can bring us closer to the peak of cases and then to the subsequent decline.
“The credit is due to people’s response to perception of danger and the first restrictive measures, from the nearby anti-nightlife to the curfew“, He explains Paolo spada, Humanitas surgeon from Milan which has been very popular on social media since the beginning of the pandemic for its data analysis, developed in a team with the epidemiologist Sara gandini and the virologist Guido Silvestri. In Lombardy, he adds, “the peak of infection could already come this week. But to see the effects on the hospitalswe will have to wait for that latency What is between contagion, the appearance of disease and the complications that lead to Recovery“This means that the maximum occupancy of beds – as long as the system is in place, it will only take two to three weeks. “For this, I think a new lock it’s not reasonable. Doing it now wouldn’t change anything immediately, ”explains Spada. “We need calm and a cool head, we still have to check the effectiveness the division of the country into three areas. The hope is that the virus slows down again, as it is already doing, and then begins to withdrawal. If anything they serve local restrictions in the most critical provinces and interventions to lighten up pressure on hospitals ”.
From the first restrictions to the slowdown of the virus – To know how the pandemic is really going, you also need to learn a read the data published every day by the Ministry of Health. “Comparing today’s infections to yesterday’s infections never makes sense,” Spada explains. “Exist significant statistical fluctuations, from the data that arrives late from the Regions to the variation of the buffers. “Not even the daily relationship between positive and proven cases makes more sense, adds the expert. “Compared to the last few months, there have been many quick tests which act as a filter, increasing the population screening. But they are not counted in the total number of swabs, so the rate of positives is always higher than reality ”. The only data that has value, therefore, is the weekly data. And the trend registered at the national level leaves no room for doubt: from the first restrictions and the alert level in the country has risen again, the COVID-19 began to circulate with less acceleration. Just pay attention to the dates: at the end of September the increase in cases compared to the previous 7 days was around 11%, within 15 days it is increased ten times. In the middle, however, the dpcm that imposed the obligation to wear a mask outdoors throughout Italy and the media alert has risen again.
“Certainly it is not just that obligation that has changed things, but in fact, after ten to fourteen days since that date, new infections have not increased at the same rate as before,” says Spada. The measures of the government and the Regions occurred almost weekly: the October 16 The Pirellone has launched a first tightening in the nightlife, prohibiting the consumption of food and drinks outdoors after 18, closing the restaurants at 24, bingo halls, limiting a range of sport activities. On October 18, the executive issued a similar dpcm valid throughout Italy. Then came to October 22, when the curfew from 11 pm to 5 am and they have closed i malls weekend nei. Ordinances Similar were taken from north to south. Another race, another lap: new dpcm on October 24 with closing of bars and restaurants at 6 pm and stop at pools and gyms. Throughout the period, the infections grew more slowly each week. The hope is that it now reaches its peak. And that the dpcm of November 3, that is, the one that divided Italy into three, can finally decrease the cases. Yesterday new infections increased by 21.1% compared to 7 days ago, today we are substantially at the same percentage, which in Lombardy is even lower. In other regions it’s even better, like Aosta Valley (+ 1.1%) e Molise (-2.1%), although other factors also influence the risk classification.
The impact of infections on beds – The problem is that hospitals may not withstand the impact. “Even in the case of hospitalizations there is a Slow down weekly ”, explains Spada, who manages the Facebook project together with Silvestri and Gandini. Optimism pills. “The point is that any increase must be added to the total of beds already occupied. Even if the percentage of daily increase were 0%, every week there would be the same number of hospitalizations as the previous week. It’s already something, but you have to get to the peak early and then to the descent ”. When? “The peak of hospitalizations is likely to come 3 weeks after the peak of infections. So it is plausible that both start to decline“In essence, we still have difficult weeks ahead, but they were largely anticipated and predictable.” The phenomenon that at this point leads us to think is lock required, that is, the hospital burdenWe had foreseen it on October 21 ”, insists Spada, who nevertheless underlines:“ On October 24 the government reacted. In general, there was the correct attention so as not to impact too much on the lives of families. Now you just have to Do not panic“.
Spada: “Efforts are needed to ease the burden on hospitals” – According to the expert, therefore, “It is unavoidable, the hospitals are going to be filled more by the infections of these days ”. Hence the hypothesis that a confinement at the national level it is not the right solution. “We must hope that the positive signs of the curve, and the effects of the red, orange and yellow areas are enhanced. We will see it in the coming days in Lombardy and in the rest of the country next week ”, explains Spada. His proposal is that we think instead of introducing stricter measures in some provinces that are still severely affected (going badly in Turin, Caserta, Belluno, Verona). And above all to “lighten up the burden on hospitals. They are needed residence and hotel for post-acute patients. If you have to wait for a patient to be fully recovered before sending it home, the Rotation of beds is too slow. I do not see how a new restrictive measure, the effects of which will only be seen at the end of November, has sense now”.
At the bottom are the difficulties of the institutions to adopt measures that can anticipate the effects of the virus, instead of pursuing them. “We have seen it in recent days, with the ISS that has referred data from two weeks ago to evaluate which Regions to include in the yellow, orange and red area. The Rt index has a predictive valueBut if it is used 10 days late, it loses its effectiveness ”, Spada emphasizes. The fault, however, does not seem to be Rome, as several claim to prove. get, including Genoa. “Each Region does it for itself, sends numbers late, there are omissions and errors, block the data packets. If this is the mechanism that should guide large-scale decisions like the confinement, then it is clear that the Consequences You pay “.
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