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We could have bypass blocking? Yes, according to a group of researchers Italians from the CNR, the National Institute of Nuclear Physics, the University of Camerino and Ricmass and the International Center for Materials Science in Rome, which in March 29 they sent the premier Conte and the Minister of Health hope a document in which they propose a system of containment of COVID-19 in Italy as an alternative to confinement.
The way forward, according to the professors who signed the letter (among whom we also find the Prof. Andrea Crisanti), was the call “Case Search and Mobile Tracking” (CFMT). Instead of closing shops, restaurants, schools and slowing down the economy, it was necessary to do a lot of rapid tests, to massively use the technologies of contact tracking via mobile data and isolate infected people from their families. In this way, says the group of researchers, we could have stopped the spread of the epidemic in Italy in 20 days.
Yes today “Contact tracking no longer makes sense”, given the high prevalence of infections and the very low percentage of control, said Crisanti in a recent interview with Corriere della SeraIn the initial phase of the pandemic, however, it would have been an effective strategy to contain the virus, together with the isolation of infected people from their families and mass testing.
Italy could stop Covid-19 in 20 days without lockdown, according to these scientists
While Italy chose the conventional strategy of “lock, stop and continue” combined with tests performed only on positives (as initially recommended by the WHO), the alternative of Case search and mobile tracking was being adopted in countries like China, South Korea, Singapore, Israel and Taiwan, which did not carpet tests to the population and provided a lonely quarantine assisted by the infected, not in the family – the first place of infection – but in hotels accustomed to welcoming the positives to their negativity.
Thanks to this containment strategy (but not only) China seems to have managed to avoid the second wave.
To reach their conclusions, the group of researchers conducted a study with an interdisciplinary approach: it was moved, according to the letter sent to the government on March 29, 2020 and published by Lettera150, “Knowledge in the field of complex quantum materials and in the studies of the growth of crystals formed by polymorphic molecules in the field of the epidemiology of the evolution of contagious infectious diseases”.
“Data analysis”, the text continues, “It shows that the containment measures in Italy are partially effective and the spread of contagion in Italy in the period of 28 days from February 27 of the contagion explosion follows the elongated exponential growth. The second phase of arrest appears only in countries that have activated the “Case Finding and Mobile Tracing” (CFMT) protocol after a time t * of 16 days in China and only 6 days in South Korea, while in Italy the 28 days from the beginning the arrest phase has not yet appeared and the day when there will be no new infections seems distant.
The conclusion of the studies is that “The pandemic in Italy can be stopped in 20 days from the moment the case location control and mobile tracking is implemented, especially in the central, southern and island regions.” However, by now it is too late.
