[ad_1]
Yellow, orange or red? Campania is observed special: today the decision arrives. The updated epidemiological data -which measure weekly, with a complex algorithm, the fever caused by Covid-19 in the regions- were certified and analyzed yesterday by the Technical-Scientific Committee that supports the Ministry of Health. The automatic evaluation mechanism requires further investigation. The prospect of 21 indicators, including the infamous Rt index that measures outbreak proliferation, is not enough to dissolve the forecast and that the region remains in the yellow zone is at this point the least likely hypothesis. What counts now are above all the high figures reached by the contagion field with an exponential trend, throughout the month of October, however, anticipating the tumultuous profile that the epidemic has acquired throughout the country. Now that the first outbreaks of late summer have produced flames and ashes and the stress reached by the hospital network has reached its limit, the scenario deserves to be treated with the utmost attention. The same occurs with four or five other regions that have been the object of the ministry’s attention and that are beneficiaries of the same revaluation supplement. After the telephone call that came out yesterday from the Palazzo Santa Lucia, with which De Luca contacted the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza, demanding an immediate and public comparison on the data from Campania and alleging the low mortality before the anti number of cases, the technicians of the Ministry. and the Region have started working closely together since last night. A working group that today will continue to recalculate in greater detail the parameters established to verify the scope of the risk.
READ ALSO Red, orange and yellow regions: what can and cannot be done
Just think of the need for Red Cross tents to lighten the work in the Cardarelli emergency room or those placed in the Frullone for tampons and necessary to free personnel diverted to home care functions with the Usca. It is also a way of touching the long lines of triage patients in emergency rooms where times lengthen when dozens of suspects arrive at the same time. Wait for the response time of the swab, perform the computed tomography, arrange the patient for observation on an isolated path, transfer him to a Covid center when the access site does not have it available, guarantee care and assistance to other acute emergency patients ( trauma, myocardial infarctions), has brought the hospital network to its knees. The in-depth work will continue today, in close collaboration between regional and ministerial technicians, to later lead to a final global evaluation. Finished with Campania, we will continue with other regions kept under close observation due to the severity and number of cases and the overload suffered by the personnel also in terms of infections that end up weakening the front lines. A job not to correct something – ministry sources clarify – but to more accurately assess the parameters and risks ”. This happens when the health system reaches the limit of its capabilities. The alternative scenarios to yellow? There are two: the passage in the orange zone or the yellow zone associated with red but limited to the provinces of Naples and Caserta for some time included by the same ministry among the special observed.
Therefore, there is not a case of Campania, but rather a Covid emergency in regions that, like Campania, are experiencing exponential dynamics, a fold that the virus will soon have across Europe. One of the most prominent elements that will be taken into account is the distinction between available and feasible beds that, even in intensive care, would register a worsening not so much in the growth profile of the figures as in the progressive, albeit slow, mechanism. saturation. There is a fear of straw that can break the camel’s back and this should not happen. On the other hand, on the resuscitation front, it is a fact that a series of prepared beds cannot be used immediately due to the lack of specialized, non-vicarious figures, such as anesthesiologists, it is a fact since it is established that the conversion is easier and more timely. , in the Covid network, of ordinary hospitalization units with medium or low assistance, also with recourse to the beds available in the area of accredited nursing homes and hospitals classified as religious. Actions that the Region has already initiated. One of the key elements to take into account is also the progressive inability to trace the sources of the infection and, therefore, to implement timely contact tracing actions.
ALSO READ Covid, Problem Report: “Very Serious Situation”
In figures as of October 25, the epidemic trend marks a growth of new positives, mostly asymptomatic, and a significant increase in hospitalizations in the medical area and in intensive care. Campania currently employs 1,817 Covid beds compared to 3,160 available for an occupancy rate of 57.5%, well above the threshold of 40. So for intensive care with 186 occupied beds compared to 590 available (across the network of health care) and an employment rate of 31.5 exceeds the 30 percent threshold established by ministerial indicators. Even for tampons, infections that arise from suspected cases, which are more difficult to contain and track, are 97% compared to 3% of cases that arise from detection and that stop quickly in the spread and in some cities of the area from Naples and Caserta. the positive test rate reached 25 percent (one in four).
That Campania shows strong criticalities of local services and the current or imminent achievement of the critical thresholds for hospital service occupancy is also the result of the epidemic incidence values that in the data updated to November 3 and related to the week of October 26 to November 1 (evaluated for 14 days including the week before) put it in the worst group after Liguria, Lombardy, Piedmont, Bolzano, Umbria and Valle D’Aosta. With 633 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, it is very close to Umbria, which is nevertheless sparsely populated, but mostly Piedmont and well above the national average of 523. All the conditions for a probable risk reclassification and containment measures plus restrictive.
Last update: November 10 at 06:57 © REPRODUCTION RESERVED
[ad_2]
