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While five new Regions go from the yellow to the orange zone, with much more critical situations, the pandemic has begun COVID-19 in Italy it is confirmed in rapid deterioration. Most of the national territory is compatible with a scenario type 3, But they are the number of Regions is increasing where the baud rate is already supported by one scenario 4.
This is what is reported in the new Monitoring ISS-Ministry of Health, published on November 9 and referred to the period from October 26 to November 1. Due to the time that elapses between exposure to the pathogen and the development of symptoms and between symptoms and diagnosis and subsequent notification, many of the cases reported this week are likely to become infected in the early part of October.
Situation “In general and very serious”
The situation is confirmed “In general and very serious” throughout the national territory with criticalities now evident in many Italian regions.
The situation stands out strong criticalities of local services and the current or imminent achievement of critical occupancy thresholds for hospital services in all Regions. All are classified as high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable outbreak in the territory or moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the coming weeks.
The greater increase in incidence is consistent with the increase inNational route, which is currently maintained above 1.7, which indicates a progressive approach to scenario 4. In the period 15-28 October 2020, the Rt calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 1.72. Average Rt values exceeding 1.5 are found in most Italian regions / APs and higher than one in all regions / APs.
Delays and pressure on hospitals
With the rapid growth in incidence, theinability to keep track of all transmission chains and the fast increased burden on wellness services with an increase in hospital bed occupancy rates both in critical and non-critical areas that characterize this epidemic phase.
This week there is a strong additional increase in cases that raises the cumulative incidence in the last 14 days to 523.74 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 10/19 / 2020-01 / 11/2020 (compared to 279.72 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 12 / 10-25 / 10). In the same period, the number of symptomatic cases went from 54,377 (period 12 / 10-25 / 10) to 129,238 (period 19 / 10-01 / 11).
In general, it is essential to maintain a high quality of the data reported to the integrated surveillance system, both for its timeliness (delay in the notification of cases reported to the surveillance system on aggregate data coordinated by the Ministry of Health) and for its integrity.
This resulted in a delay in receiving data Consolidated by Regions for the week October 26-November 1, which is currently the latest consolidated data available. As a consequence, this can lead to an underestimation of the transmission rate and incidence.
Lost tracking
The percentage of cases detected through contact tracing activities remains stable (19.5%), and the already significant percentage of cases identified by the appearance of symptoms (35.1%) is confirmed. The percentage of cases detected by screening activities also remained stable (27.4%). Finally, for now not negligible (18.0%), the percentage of cases in which the reason for the diagnostic evaluation was not reported.
The number of cases not attributable to known transmission chains continues to increase (74,967 this week compared to 49,511 the previous week), which exceeds 80% of the new cases reported in some Regions / PA.
Iss and the Ministry of Health insist on need for a drastic reduction in physical interactions between people to relieve pressure on health services. It is essential that the population avoid all opportunities of contact with people outside their home that are not strictly necessary and that they stay at home as long as possible ”.
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