“The epidemic is getting worse, tougher measures in all regions”

Published on: 09/11/2020 10:53 PM

“It is confirmed that the epidemic in Italy is worsening rapidly. In most of the national territory it is compatible with a type 3 scenario but the number of Regions / PAs in which the baud rate is already compatible with scenario 4. Therefore, a very serious general and generalized situation is confirmed throughout the national territory, with criticalities now evident in numerous Italian Regions / PAs. “This is what we read in the ISS report for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2020 (data updated to November 9, 2020). “The situation described in this report highlights strong criticalities of local services and current or imminent achievement of critical occupancy thresholds for hospital services in all Regions / PA ”, reads the report, which therefore considers“ essential to strengthen mitigation measures in all Regions ”and“ a drastic reduction in physical interactions between people is necessary ”.

“All Regions / PAs are classified as high risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic in the territory. or moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next few weeks. It is essential to strengthen mitigation measures in all Regions / PA as indicated in the document ‘Prevention and response to Covid-19: evolution of the strategy and planning in the transition phase for the autumn-winter period’ transmitted with the Circular of the Ministry of Health ”. .

“It is confirmed – continues the report – that a drastic reduction of physical interactions between people is necessary to alleviate the pressure on health services. It is essential that the population avoid all opportunities for contact with people outside their own residential area. that are not strictly necessary and to stay at home as long as possible. “

And again: “The increase in cases is generalized throughout the country, with all Regions / ASF reporting an increase in the number of diagnosed cases compared to the previous week (MdS flow)”.

In the week from October 26 to November 1, 2020, the Iss report continues, “a strong additional increase in cases is observed that raises the cumulative incidence (ISS flow data) in the last 14 days to 523.74 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 19/10 / 2020-01 / 11/2020 (vs 279.72 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 12 / 10-25 / 10) In the same period, the number of symptomatic cases increased from 54,377 (period 12 / 10-25 / 10). To 129,238 (period 19 / 10-01 / 11) “. Furthermore, according to the report, the cumulative incidence in the last 7 days stood at 304.16 per 100,000 inhabitants.

“In the period 15-28 October 2020, the Rt calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 1.72 (95% CI: 1.45-1.83). Mean Rt values ​​greater than 1.5 they are found in most Italian Regions / PAs and higher than one in all Regions / PAs “. In particular, the analysis of the data shows that the Lombardy has passed 2 (Rt at 2.08), while Basilicata (Rt at 1.99) and Piedmont (Rt at 1.97) are approaching that threshold., followed by Molise (1.88) and the province of Bolzano (1.87). Liguria (1.48) Sicilia (1.4), Lazio (1.36), Marche (1.29) Sardinia (1.24) are below 1.5.

According to the report, in addition, “a total of one Criticality to maintain a high quality of the data reported to the integrated surveillance system. both due to timing (delay in the notification of cases related to the surveillance system on aggregate data coordinated by the Ministry of Health) and due to completeness. This led to a delay this week in receiving consolidated data from the Regions / AP for the week of October 26 to November 1, which is currently the most recent consolidated data available. In itself, this constitutes further proof of the general criticality of the resilience spread throughout the national territory and due to the seriousness of the epidemiological situation. As a consequence, this can lead to an underestimation of transmission speed and incidence. “