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AGI – The “traffic light” of the Italian regions could already change, in fact it is very likely, divided into yellow, orange and red depending on the level of risk. The new restrictions came into force last Friday, the day of entry into force of the dpcm signed by Prime Minister Conte on November 3, and this afternoon a new meeting of the regional monitoring control room, made up of the Ministry of Health, the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and three representatives of the Regions, is called to evaluate the new data from the territories and decide on possible movements in a higher risk band.
Excluding instead that the red or orange regions can descend to a less severe level: To reduce risk levels, at least two weeks of follow-up are required. At the moment they are in the red band – which foresees, among other things, the prohibition of any movement, even within the municipality, at any time, the school in attendance only up to the sixth grade and the closing of shops, bars and restaurants- Calabria, Lombardy, Piedmont, Valle d’Aosta, to which is added the Alto Adige, which has proclaimed itself a ‘red zone’.
In the orange band, considered “intermediate” and which provides for the prohibition of movement between one region and between one municipality and another, are Puglia and Sicily. While in the yellow band, which has the restrictive measures in force throughout the country (the “curfew” from 10pm to 5am, museum and exhibition closures, distance education in high school and a reduction of up to 50% for public transport), they are all the others: Abruzzo, Basilicata, Campania, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Liguria, Marche, Molise, Province of Trento, Sardinia, Tuscany, Umbria, Veneto … Expert judgment it depends on some of them. they have the new weekly data on the table.
The 21 indicators examined
The key point of the story is precisely the data: the control room examines 21 indicators to assign the “colors”, but the first subdivision, dating from last week, was based on follow-up data at the end of October. Too many incomplete or lagging numbers for regions. The same delay that postponed the meeting, and the related decision, scheduled for late last week.
In fact, for 6 months (the establishment of the control room dates back to May 4, at the end of the confinement), the experts had been taking stock until Thursday at the latest, to present the results of the monitoring on Friday, rare time on Saturday. Although the ministry’s press office last Thursday did not provide the new data, it simply explained that some regions, especially those with higher risk, “have a data stability problem” due to difficulties “in data collection.” . , admitted the president of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Silvio Brusaferro.
“There are regions like Valle d’Aosta – he explained – that have difficulties to collect data over a consistent period, which carries a high risk according to the defined algorithm.” That is why Valle d’Aosta ended up in the red band: Among the 21 indicators, in fact, there are several on the ability to monitor and provide reliable and stable data at pre-established times.. In summary, the delay in the transmission of data or incomplete numbers can not only affect the “report card” attributed to a Region (even if the Ministry of Health and the ISS want to reiterate that the report card is not mentioned: “The The scientific technical spirit is supportive, understanding where you are going, the way forward, is not an evaluation of any kind “) but they also influenced the time of the update.
The escalation of the last days
At the press point this Thursday, Brusaferro admitted: “We still do not have updated data,” announcing that they would be presented the next day and then corrected with a more prudent one “within 48 hours.”
It took 4 days, confirming the moment of difficulty in data collection by prevention departments, local health authorities and departments literally submerged by the emergency. “I would exclude the obstinacy of the regions,” Ironbrush tried to lower his tone.There has been a huge increase in cases in recent weeks with rapid growth and this is putting the system in trouble.. The heavy workload can cause delays. “
The regions most at risk
Today, however, to avoid further laps, a new squeeze may come: some ‘yellow’ regions had already discussed last week, firstly Campania, struggling with alarming figures (also yesterday another 4,600 cases), “forgiven” in the first follow-up due to a RT considered indicative of a certain stabilization at least in perspective, equal to 1.49, that is, one millimeter from that indicated as the upper risk threshold, that is, 1.5, worse if it is maintained for several consecutive weeks.
Veneto, Tuscany and Emilia also posted notable increases, even if in these cases they are partially balanced by the availability of beds, starting with intensive care beds, which makes Veneto, above all, still far from the 30% employment threshold considered critical by the ministry (it is in 19% according to Agenas data, well below the 34% achieved at the national level).
Criticalities are certainly not lacking: if the monitoring system promises to provide an objective and indisputable grid, which through pre-established algorithms should almost automatically produce the updated image of the situation, the variables are many and enough to make it unstable. First of all, as mentioned, the times: the difficulties of data collection, but also the virus itself that, as we know, already confuses the waters, manifesting itself days after infection.
If today we register a thousand new cases, they are infected people even ten or twelve days ago. It’s like looking at a distant star instead of several light years, say two light weeks: what we see in the telescope is the remote reflection of something that has already happened.
This also affects the Rt index, considered by experts as one of the most reliable criteria: the “current” Italian Rt index, 1.7, actually dates back many days. In addition, according to the same admission of the ISS that on its website instead invites us to take this value with due caution, the RT is calculated only in symptomatic cases, which is why the huge mass of asymptomatic patients escapes until the end of the year. In the summer, the system was able to trace with discreet effectiveness and they are basically left at home, in the best of cases, since the tampons are now reserved only to verify the positivity in those who have symptoms.
