[ad_1]
During the press conference on the analysis of the data from the Regional Monitoring of the Control Room to illustrate the indicators that led to the last Dpcm, the president of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità spoke about the measures necessary to lower the curve
“We are here to illustrate and share the tools that are accompanying this phase of the pandemic,” explained Silvio Brusaferro at the beginning of the press conference at the Ministry of Health to illustrate the indicators that led to the last Dpcm. “The update of the new data will take place in the next few hours, through the usual weekly monitoring of the ISS and the Ministry of Health,” said Brusaferro. The professor explained that there are diversified goals for each phase of the coronavirus epidemic. We are in a phase of transition and remodeling in which there are outbreaks on which we must intervene to control the spread, returning it to more unstable values or a more controlled speed to be able to face the coming months ”.
The indicators evaluated
deepening
New Dpcm, the measures for the red zones: what can and cannot be done
During his speech, Brusaferro stressed the importance of the control room, which belongs to the Ministry of Health, and uses the Regions and the ISS to carry out a weekly risk assessment. “As of May 4, weekly, this evaluation has been prepared and has begun to become a routine report. Through the control room, we surveyed the evolution of the epidemic and were able to identify the phase transition that took place at the beginning of October ”. Other indicators that help monitor the progress of the epidemic are the Rt index and the occupation of beds. “If there is a region that apparently has few cases but a high intensive care occupation, that region is a region that suffers. These data must be read in their entirety, ”added Gianni Rezza, Director of Prevention at the Ministry of Health. “After 14 days,” Rezza added, “there could be a decalcification for the regions, as well as if in the next control room there were different situations, other regions could become red. Also, the system is not that rigid and there is the possibility of introducing red areas even in a region that is not red. “
Brusaferro: “I would exclude the obstinacy of the regions”
Speaking of the insufficiency of the available data, Brusaferro ruled out “the fraud of the regions.” “There has been a huge increase in cases in recent weeks, with the curve growing rapidly and this is putting the system in trouble. The considerable workload can cause delays ”. The expert then underlined that “risk analysis looks at the trend, it is not a tool that evaluates individual regions or provinces.” Its use helps to understand “how the situation is evolving and where we are going. It is an automatic process with very defined strict rules ”.
Campania’s Rt index is lower than that of Lombardy and Calabria
Speaking of the decision not to make Campania a red zone, Rezza explained that the region’s transmissibility index (Rt) is lower than that of Lombardy or Calabria. “This means that transmission, which had increased a lot in recent weeks, has stabilized, although the number of cases remains high.”
In Calabria the Rt index is 1.84
Rezza explained that Calabria is in the red zone because its Rt is quite high: 1.84. These data suggest a possible increase in transmission and a probable criticality in the number of cases in the near future. Furthermore, an ICU occupancy of more than 50% could occur.
The percentage of positive swabs exceeds 10%
“Today’s data update is not good. 34,500 cases are not a good sign, also because the percentage of positive swabs exceeds 10%. Even the deaths, 445, are many. About 220 thousand swabs, 99 in care In recent days the situation seemed to have stabilized even taking into account the daily variability but today’s data tell us that it seems that worldwide the virus continues to work and it is necessary to stop it, “said Rezza, speaking of the latest available data. .
