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In Campania, the Covid fever was at least two weeks early, starting in September and then throughout October, the exponential growth profile assumed in all Italian regions. Months in which we witness the progressive saturation of beds in the Covid units, the congestion of the emergency service, the subsequent stoppage of all ordinary activities, a family medicine increasingly in trouble and 118 now on their knees. However, Campania, in the three epidemic risk profiles drawn up by the government and the national control room, ended up in the yellow band, the warmest and with wide mesh restrictions.. So why in two weeks did it go from the serious alarm that led Governor Vincenzo De Luca to request the confinement of the lowest-risk gang of the three identified by the Higher Institute of Health?
THE RISK BANDS
In the technical work that accompanied the risk analysis among the 21 indicators that make up the complex evaluation grid, the condensate is a simple concept: in the red zone (or in the orange alternative) the regions in which the cases increase exponentially end (Rt above 1.5) in the face of an unstable care system in the hospital and in the territory (including the work of tracking new cases). Campania, therefore, is relegated from the first two levels of danger, degraded (or promoted depending on the point of view) to the yellow zone (which guarantees greater social freedoms) because ultimately it would have well governed the avalanche of contagions of which it is has been run over after the summer. In practice, despite the tide of new cases, many hospitalized patients, an occupancy rate of resuscitation places that borders on the alarm value (30 percent of the total) and a Covid network on the verge of collapse, the epidemic is stable despite a reality in which the Red Cross has already come to the aid with field hospitals and nursing homes with accredited beds. If it were also thanks to the restrictive measures taken before others and more drastic (see school and the brake on mobility between provinces) we could control the infection. “The parameters prove to be unreliable and complicate the rules beyond the threshold of common understanding, the worst way to prevent the epidemic,” said Susanna Borriero, an epidemiologist and occupational physician.
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BY LUCA
“The decisions of the government on the division into epidemiological zones of Italy have created predictable problems – answers the controversial De Luca – I am convinced of the need for unitary national measures, even more rigorous, for more effective action to combat Covid in the event of a spread substantially homogeneous of infection “. «As far as we are concerned – he continues in a note – any attitude of comfort and relaxation would be out of place. The situation is dire. And now there is the risk of a paradox: that whoever is in the red or orange zone will reopen all activities in a month, having stopped the contagion and whoever closes their eyes today will have to block everything during the Christmas period ”. In short, the virus is there and it will not go away on its own. And the risk of having dramatic situations is just around the corner. Irresponsible behaviors, still very present in our territories, run the risk of putting everything in danger and exploding the two decisive data for us ”. The reference is to the presence contained in intensive care and a low fatality rate. “I invite the mayors – concludes De Luca – to prepare from today the closing of the walks and part of the historic centers on weekends.” Invitation received for now by the Salerno and Pozzuoli City Councils. The latest appeal is for Conte: “I urge the government to decide immediate measures for parental leave or babysitting allowances for mothers who take care of younger children. We look forward to seeing and evaluating the announced financial aid measures. The extension of the ordinary conditions of payment and withholding of VAT can only be a general measure “.
THE NEW CASES
Meanwhile, Campania continues to grind new infections: yesterday 3,888 (second after Lombardy) and with an Rt index of 1.3 in ten days it will count more than 5,000 as proof that when the numbers are high the proportions change. The ratio of positives to swabs also remains among the highest in the country. We are comforted by the deaths: yesterday 17 but they remain at a low rate, half the national rate, but with the figures of these days, in about ten days there will be between 30 and 40 deaths a day. Hospitalizations increase (39 more).
Last update: 23:27 © REPRODUCTION RESERVED
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