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New daily record of coronavirus cases in Italy. According to data from today’s bulletin, Thursday, November 5, released by the Ministry of Health, 34,505 Coronavirus infections have been registered in the last 24 hours (yesterday there were 30,550), for a total of 472,348 cases since the start of the health emergency . The healed are 312,339 (+4,961, yesterday they were +5,103), the dead are 40,192 (there is an increase of 445 deaths in the last 24 hours, yesterday they were +352). The positive cases are currently 472,348 (+29,113). Of these, 1,140 patients are hospitalized with symptoms, 99 in intensive care. Overall, the swabs performed in the last 24 hours were 219,884. The Region with the most positive cases daily is Lombardy with more than 8 thousand cases, followed by Piedmont, Campania and Veneto.
“When it comes to cases, there is certainly a record, but the speed of the increase is slowing down.” Giovanni Forti, 26, is a student of Economics at the University of Pisa and at the Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna. Since 2018 he has been part of the editorial team of YouTrend, where he deals with the editorial part, data analysis and data visualization production and in YouTrend he has written several articles about the Covid-19 pandemic: “In fact, we entered the territory of 30 thousand cases a day and a positive rate above 15% of swabs – explains Forti to Fanpage.it – More than stopping the contagion, we are missing cases. Of course, we hope we are missing the less serious cases. And we hope that the new restrictive measures fulfill their duty, preventing these cases that we lose from infecting other people ”.
From a certain point of view, does the new Dpcm arrive just in time?
No, he’s actually a little late. It was necessary to adjust when the boxes were around 10-15 thousand per day. Having the yellow, orange and red zones just starting tomorrow leaves a lot of perplexity. And it is puzzling that the use of smart work is not being adequately encouraged, given that the workplace, as well as public transport, are among the main places of contagion.
Let’s talk about red, orange and yellow areas. And since this is being discussed, there are some red areas that shouldn’t have been. Or some yellow zone that needed tighter measures, looking at the data?
In theory, for the first time, it is a choice based on shared indicators, and it is difficult to question a methodology. Let’s say that Liguria and Campania, in particular, are two regions where perhaps it could have been toughened up a bit more. Both by number of infections, deaths and intensive care occupation.
Lombardy, the red zone par excellence, how are you today?
Today Lombardy has had a new day with almost 9,000 cases. In particular, however, the impressive figure is 139 deaths, which we haven’t seen in months. The latter above all is a delicate and important fact. Because the death toll tells us how many cases we have lost in recent weeks.
Which are the most difficult provinces in Lombardy?
Milan, with more than three thousand cases, is a case in itself. If it were an autonomous province, it would be the third Italian region after the rest of Lombardy and Campania. But Varese, Monza and, again, Brescia are also worrying, all between 1000 and 700 cases.
Outside Lombardy, where does the virus bite the most?
Campania, Veneto and Piedmont have between 3000 and 4000 cases, and Lazio, Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna between 2000 and 3000. However, it is still very widespread throughout Italy, with each region having more than 100 cases. The only major region with fewer than a thousand cases is Puglia, with around 850 cases, and only 13 provinces with fewer than 50 cases. There is nothing in Italy today that is Covid free.
Are infected still growing relative to tampons?
Regarding all the swabs made, today we are at 15.7%. Last Thursday we were at 13.3%. And in general we only had two more days than today, Sunday and last Monday, but they suffer the famous weekend effect. On a weekday, we didn’t have such a high positivity rate until April. In fact, the contact tracing system is jumping all over the place. Whereas in some regions, close or obvious contacts are no longer tested if they are asymptomatic.
Deaths, hospitalizations and intensive care, on the other hand, at what rate are they growing?
Today there have been many deaths, 445. There were not so many since May 2. It is a very worrisome symptom, in the context of a weekly trend of 296 average deaths during the last week, + 80% compared to last week. If cases slow down, deaths inexorably double from week to week. On the other hand, hospitalizations and intensive care are growing at a slower rate: intensive care is increasing at a rate of 100 per day, net of deaths or discharges. While sub-intensive hospitalizations are ten times more, at 1140. In the last week, the balance was around a thousand per day and a very, very important growth. 40% of all admissions came this week. I think it conveys the idea.
What can we expect next week?
Regarding the cases it is very difficult to say. The decline in percentage growth could continue and stand at around 30-40 thousand a day, as has been happening for weeks in the rest of the European countries that are currently locked in. The number would also increase if we increase the buffers. As for deaths, sadly, the worst is yet to come. Let’s hope they don’t reach March levels. But the risk, sadly, exists.
Speaking of March: pandemic severity rate compared to then?
We are at 75% of what happened, a figure between March 14 and 15.
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