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The president of the Higher Institute of Health, Silvio Brusaferro, At a press conference together with Giovanni Rezza, General Director of Prevention of the Ministry of Health, he explained which are the indicators that led to the definition of the three risk areas foreseen by the last Dpcm. “We want to share the tools that accompany this phase of the epidemic. There was a first phase in which we modeled the curve, a second phase in which the curve was decreasing, and phases in which immunity was achieved. Now we are in a transition phase, with growth“, Brusaferro began to explain.
Explaining what kind of measures should be taken at this stage: “The first tool that our country has equipped itself with is the control room that must carry out a weekly risk assessment“, he specified, specifying that afterwards, based on these data, reflections on the anti-contagion strategy are carried out. This weekly evaluation has become a routine report shared at the central and regional level as of May 4, which also includes seen how from the beginning of October we entered a new stage, reaching a situation of significant increase in infections from the 18th of the month, and from these data a series of indicators could be derived, which are divided into three categories: process (which shows how the system is able to produce reliable analyzes), result (which indicates how fast the infection runs), and finally there are indicators that show the capacity of the health system.
“From the intersection of these we arrive at a matrix that locates the territory analyzed from a very low to very high risk situation“added Brusaferro. He reported that at the end of August we began to think about how to deal with an epidemic curve. Among which, to establish scenarios to associate containment measures.”These scenarios also determine the speed at which the infection spreads in the population.. The circular with these scenarios was issued on August 12 and then a prevention and response document for the fall and winter period to the Covid-19 infection was shared.“He continued. In this second document, precisely, all the tools produced in this pandemic phase are reported and that allow us to identify the appropriate measures.”A kind of manual. The measures to be adopted must be linked to the different levels of risk“he added, highlighting the possibility of always adapting the regulatory framework at different levels.”Over the past week, this document highlighted high-risk regions. Others are at moderate risk. On this basis, each Region then shared this evaluation and formally received an elaboration regarding the described model from the Ministry of Health. That has been running for 24 weeks and is always widely shared.“.
Still: “On this system and based on the transmission speed we arrive at the last Dpcm“. Also insisting on the Rt index and reiterating the principle of maximum precaution, explaining how some Regions, even with a rather low Rt index, found themselves in a high risk situation. Regarding Valle d’Aosta, he also highlighted how the Region’s difficulties in communicating daily data have contributed to its being classified as high risk.
Giovanni Rezza then illustrated the latest available data on the spread of the virus in the different territories, highlighting the importance of some parameters: “There may be a region that apparently has few cases, but has a high Rt index and few ICU beds. And clearly then that Region is suffering. Many times it is not clear how, but Region x is in red, while others are in yellow, perhaps with fewer cases. But you have to read all the data in its entirety. That refer to the current incidence of infection, both RT and resilience data“he added.”We all know the trend of cases in Lombardy. Then we also find in red a region like Calabria that does not have a very high incidence, but a high Rt. How is it possible? Because RT shows what the trend is. A high Rt anticipates an increase in incidence. Data on the capacity of intensive care, the ability to trace the chain of transmission of infection must also be taken into account … all this contributes to making a region like Calabria in the red zone.“, he also stated.
Regions in the orange or red area will stay this way for at least 14 days. Instead, Regions in the yellow area could change their location based on the trend of infections that could emerge even during the week. However, it is not a rigid mechanism: red zones could also be created in regions with moderate risk. And conversely, areas with less severe measures could be indicated even in enclosed regions. Rezza then gave the example of Campania, which despite many cases has a lower Rt: this is becauseInterventions implemented with local ordinances may have had some effect on transmission.Rezza then concluded by emphasizing the importance of transparency in the operation of these indicators, especially at times like this, when citizens sometimes have difficulty understanding why they are in a certain area when other citizens are subject to less severe measures. while living in an area where there are more cases.
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