[ad_1]
The prediction of an election night long me fought It has been confirmed. As we move towards the dawn of Wednesday, the United States they do not have an official winner of the presidential elections. Donald trump however, it seems favored. He managed to maintain his control over the conquered states in 2016 and it seems very competitive even in those in which the result is still open. In particular, Pennsylvania, Michigan e Wisconsin stay far behind in scrutinizing. In all three states, especially in PennsylvaniaThousands of votes cast by mail and early voting were not counted. In some areas, such as Philadelphia, the delay also refers to the counting of the votes cast on the day of the elections. This is likely to go on for hours, maybe days. In Pennsylvania he should be able to count the majority of the votes before Friday. Same for him Michigan. the Wisconsin instead you should do better and finish the count on Wednesday noon.
However, a first political trial can be given. Triumph has maintained without great difficulty the States that it had already won in 2016: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio. the Texas certainly looks less “red” today, a Republican than in the past, but here too overtaking Democrats it didn’t happen. Therefore, there was no approval of the votes of the urban suburbs of Triumph a Biden, which some expected. Nor the vote of woman, of young, of Afro-American, really managed to give a Biden the impulse that I Democrats they expected. As in 2016, the vote could be decided by the states of the old “blue wall”, the democratic wall that Triumph had managed to break in 2016 by conquering Pennsylvania, Michigan e Wisconsin. Here too, democratic hopes of regaining consensus among the white working class do not seem to have been confirmed.
An important element comes from the Florida, that Trump conquered more easily than in 2016. Decisive, from this point of view, the vote in the county of Miami Dade, where Democrats they managed to prevail but with a clear hemorrhage of votes compared to four years ago. The Democratic candidate was known to have difficulties with the Hispanic vote. But in county Miami Dade the controversial argument used by definitely worked Triumph versus Biden, that’s being a “socialist”. The vast electorate of origin cuban me Venezuelan he credited the president’s impeachment and turned his back on the Democrats.
From a first analysis of the vote, it also appears that the final push of the campaign has worked Triumph, which in dozens of rallies especially in the state I answered if he tried to wake up the same passion and the same enthusiasm that made him conquer the White House in 2016. If early voting and post voting have rewarded me Democrats, on election day the president managed to bring his vote. News of Republican Mass Voter Registration in Many Areas of the Florida, from North Carolina, Michigan, show that the rise in voter turnout has affected not only Democrats but also many republicans me conservatives, motivated by the four years of government of Triumph. The polarization of society and the American electorate turned out to be a powerful reason to vote republicans.
Otherwise, two considerations are valid. In many state The polls showed the economy, not the COVID-19, as the main concern of the electorate. From this point of view, the president’s call toAmerica seems to have worked at least partially. And that’s the promise that the economy, once the health emergency is overcome, it will grow again as it has grown, below Triumph, in the previous three years. A help for him President probably also came from the growth data of Pil, with an increase of more than 7 percent in the last quarter. A good percentage of American people believed Triumph and (perhaps) returned the victory.
The last consideration concerns the Democratic candidate. Choosing an establishment politician doesn’t really seem to have worked match, not equipped with particular view none personality, which for much of the electoral campaign remained closed in his house in Delaware and has done very little electoral events. It is not yet possible to assess the participation divided into groups Social, ethnic, demographicbut it doesn’t seem like it Young people, woman, Afro-American (not to mention the Hispanics) really rewarded the choice of a centrist and moderate candidate, who somehow had to collect all the souls of the party and the electorate, from the moderates to the radical left. In other words, based on the data we have, it does not appear that the bet democratic: namely, to establish these elections as a referendum on Donald trump, considering the choice of a candidate as a secondary matter. Joe biden, at least that’s what the numbers in front of us tell us, it really hasn’t given usAmerica a view strong, alternative to Donald trump, as if to launch the Democrats towards the conquest of the White House.
[ad_2]
