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The presidential elections in the United States, the most important and followed elections in the world, will end the night of November 3-4. As every year, the polling stations will close at different times: first it will be the turn of the east coast, and little by little we will go up to the opposite coast, that of California and Oregon.
Below you will find an hour-by-hour guide to understand what to expect and when: the last few times we were able to get an idea of what the night would be like between 3 and 4 a.m. on Wednesday, but on this tour the enormous mass of votes arrived by mail or at polling stations for early voting due to the pandemic represents a great unknown, since each state has chosen to manage them differently (here you can read a guide to the New York Times on methods and times for ballot counting, state by state). We have tried to take this into account, but keep in mind that depending on how the count goes, there can be considerable variations.
1.00 (Italian time)
The seats are closed: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont
We start with a handful of states on the east coast, where it will already be night. Based on exit polls and historical precedent, US networks will assign results almost immediately in some states where not much competition is expected: unless there are big surprises that Trump should win in Kentucky and South Carolina, Biden in Vermont. The fact that in 2016 Virginia, a state that has tended to vote Democratic in recent years, but traditionally quite conservative, was not immediately assigned to Hillary Clinton was a first wake-up call for Democrats.
– Read also: How Biden and Trump Can Win
The Georgia It is one of the most important states in the balance to understand where these elections will go: how Arizona has an increasingly heterogeneous population from an ethnic point of view, and for years the Democrats have aimed to take it away from the Republicans, whose candidate for the presidency carries the most votes since 1996. The results are expected to come overnight, but if the networks assign him to Biden soon or anyway, it could be a sign of a big Democratic victory.
1.30
The seats are closed: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
It will be the first crossing of the night. the North Carolina It is one of the top states on the scale and one of the most efficient in counting ballots that arrive by mail and at polling stations open before Election Day: and esteem that a few minutes after the polls close, the vote of the majority of the ballots that arrived before November 3 will be released, which could overestimate Biden’s result (Democrats have exploited the possibility of early voting more than the Republicans). In the next hour it will be understood if Trump will be able to catch up with the votes of the people who came to vote on November 3.
In 2016 Trump won 3.6 points behind Clinton in North Carolina. Today, Trump and Biden are fairly even, but the latest quality polls gave Biden some points. If Biden manages to win in North Carolina, it may be a sign that things are looking very good for him.
For Trump, instead, it will be an excellent sign to stay in North Carolina and eventually win in a short time in Ohio, a state where majority whites still live today – the segment of the population in which Trump is stronger – than four years ago. it won with eight publishing points and where it has remained quite popular.
2.00
Seats close at: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Columbia District
They will close the seats in many states but especially in the two probably decisive to understand who will win: Florida me Pennsylvania. By the way, there are two states where the approach to early voting is very different. In Florida they are used to handling hundreds of thousands of ballots that arrive by mail or at the first polling stations, and Five thirty eight He estimates that, unless there is a minimal gap, the final results will be known in a couple of hours. To have a comparison term: in 2016, when Trump beat Clinton by 1.2 percentage points, the networks predicted the result around 4:30 Italian time.
In Pennsylvania, considered by many to be the state to watch to understand who has the best chance to win in the Midwest, the result will come too late: state law prohibits authenticating and counting votes that arrive by mail or in advance before they close. the polls are on November 3, so it will take several hours, if not days, to determine which candidate will get the most votes.
– Read also: Eye to Pennsylvania
Among other states where polling stations will close right now, keep an eye out for the New HampshireTrump and Clinton ended almost four years ago, but polls give Biden a long way ahead this year. If the networks decide to give Biden New Hampshire immediately, it could be another sign that things are looking good for the Democratic candidate. Around this time we should also have a better idea of when the results will arrive in Georgia, and what air is blowing there.
There seems to be no history in Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee where Trump will win. In Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Rhode Island and the District of Columbia, Biden will win easily.
2.30
Seats close at: Arkansas
The last Democratic candidate to win in Arkansas was Bill Clinton, who was a local governor for nearly ten years. Four years ago, Trump voiced his wife Hillary, and this year’s result is expected to be similar.
However, now we can get an idea of how things are going in Virginia, Georgia me North Carolina: If the outcome is still in the balance in these three states, it will be excellent news for Trump. Conversely, if Biden were to lead in all three, especially in North Carolina, it would mean we could know the winner’s name in a matter of hours.
3.00
The seats are closed: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
It will probably be the main focus of the night, more or less as it happened in 2016. By now we will know if Trump has stood his ground or not. Florida, North Carolina me Georgia: in the first case, to win Trump will have to wait for at least one state to enter Michigan, Minnesota me Wisconsin – everyone in the so-called Midwest, the traditionally white working-class region where Trump built his victory in 2016 but is a little behind in the polls today – are far too prepared to be assigned by television networks. In Minnesota and Wisconsin, in particular, polls give Biden a near double-digit lead: Unless there are surprises, the results should arrive in a few hours.
Instead, much more caution is expected in Texas me ArizonaTwo traditionally conservative states where Biden seems to have a chance, especially in Arizona, where it may take a few days to get the final results, however. All the other states seem already assigned: Kansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming to Trump; Colorado, New Mexico, New York to Biden, which could also play a role in Nebraska (which assigns them differently to other states, like Maine).
4.00
Seats close at: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah
There are four states that, in the event of a big Trump soiree, could be assigned almost immediately (except perhaps the Nevada, where Democrats have done quite well for a few years). If, on the other hand, the networks decide not to allocate Iowa because it is too prepared, that would be a good sign for Biden.
It was around this time that in 2012 and 2016 it became clear who would win the elections. In the first case, Barack Obama decisively extended his lead over Mitt Romney in Florida and realized that he had also won in Ohio. Four years later the opposite happened: Within an hour, Trump received the winner first in Ohio and then Florida, suggesting that he would soon win.
5.00
Seats close at: California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington
There is little doubt: in California, Oregon and Washington Biden will win, in Idaho instead of Trump. A brief summary of the states in equilibrium that by now we have probably already guessed the direction they are taking: Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Texas, Wisconsin, Minnesota. We will continue to wait for indicative results in Iowa as we understand whether it will take hours or days to have the final ones in Ohio, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
As you may have guessed, many things go through Florida. If Biden is about to win it and will be ahead at least in a state that looms among the traditionally conservatives (Georgia, North Carolina, Texas) and a large Midwestern state (Wisconsin OR Minnesota) will be very close to victory.
If, on the contrary, Trump went ahead, everything would unfold in later states, and it would probably take a few more hours to understand something: in theory Trump could also win in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia but lose the elections, if Biden manages to sustain. in all traditionally Democratic states and won in most of the Midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan): but as in at least two states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, voting will be slow; In this scenario, prepare for a long wait.
At this time polling stations will remain open in Hawaii and Alaska, where no surprises are expected: Biden and Trump will win them respectively.
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