updates today November 3, 2020, which will be closed

The new Dpcm (Prime Minister’s Decree) should be signed in the next few hours, which will further toughen the rules to avoid the spread of the coronavirus.

The epidemiological situation, however, is not homogeneous in all regions of Italy: in some the covid-19 runs less, in others it circulates with more vehemence. The new Dpcm, therefore, will identify three areas corresponding to three risk scenarios from which increasingly restrictive measures will be launched; one band will be that of the regions that are already in stage 4 and where the measurements will be launched at the same time as the Dpcm; the second band will be reserved for high-risk regions that are still in scenario 3; here the measures will be less restrictive; the third band will be that of the rest of the national territory. The calculation will be made based on the report of the Ministry of Health and the Higher Institute of Health and the areas will become red zones (it is possible that the measures affect entire regions) with an order from Minister Roberto Speranza. It will be what has been repeatedly called a “soft” or “soft” blockade that will gradually affect the whole of Italy. Among the planned measures are: the curfew, which should be given at 9pm (but Conte spoke of “late at night” thus opening the possibility of setting it at 10pm); Distance learning in secondary schools and in the last year of secondary school (this measure is also still under discussion); the early or total closure of shops and non-essential public establishments such as bars and restaurants; the reduction of public transport capacity to 50% already announced in the Chamber by the Prime Minister.

Lombardy (and Milan) in the highest risk range

Those who run the risk of having to adopt the most restrictive measures, including the general blockade, are Lombardy, Piedmont and Calabria, which have a contagion index Rt higher than 1.5 (in fact it is also above 2) and a transmission uncontrolled covidity. 19. For them, they are in preparation from the local confinements at the provincial level for at least 3 weeks until the limitation of individual mobility until the closure of the entire Region except essential activities. The province of Bolzano has already been autonomously placed in this range: after leaving bars and restaurants open in opposition to the Decree of the Prime Minister of October 24, it has now announced a 3-week closure.

On the other hand, in the second band are all those territories in which the risk factor is compatible with scenario 3, with an Rt between 1.25 and 1.5 and a “sustained and generalized transmissibility with risks of maintenance of the health system in the medium term “. In this case, “slightly less restrictive” measures are envisaged, the prime minister said. Which? Closing of activities, limitations to mobility in municipalities and provinces, closing of schools and universities due to epidemiological situation.

What is Rt

The Rt index is a calculation of the reproduction index of a disease, elaborated through complex algorithms and evaluated during a suitable period of time, for example weekly. At the beginning of the pandemic, everyone remembers the scientists speaking instead of “R with zero” or R0. It is always the rate of reproduction of a virus, but only in the initial stages, when no specific interventions (pharmacological or otherwise) are normally performed to control the infectious phenomenon. The alert level is triggered precisely when it exceeds 1, because it means that the contagion grows: each positive person potentially infects more than one, so it does not take much for the curve to bend upwards and acquire an exponential dimension. RT allows, for example, to monitor the effectiveness of interventions during an epidemic. R0 and Rt can be calculated statistically from a daily case incidence curve (the number of new cases, day by day).