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The coronavirus epidemic in Campania, in the latest Covid 19 Report of the Higher Institute of Health, is considered of a moderate level with a high probability of progression. In short, the fever of the virus is not as high as in other regions. However, there is a delay in the reporting of the data that would make the trend of the cases and the diffusion evaluated with the infectivity index Rt not entirely reliable. From Santa Lucia they point out that precisely because of the Campania Health Commissioner “also in this sector, personnel have been sanctioned for ten years and at this time of crisis the shortage of personnel is more dramatic.” In addition, very often they are inadequate personnel and personnel who are not perfectly trained with respect to the needs of the situation. In fact, not all health authorities are equipped with personnel from the corresponding prevention departments and even in the regional structure the epidemiology unit is reduced to the bones.
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But back to the numbers: on the map of the most critical areas of Campania, with respect to the diffusivity index (Rt corrected for the hospitalization rate), the highest value is recorded in Caserta (ASL that also responds more efficiently to the transmission of the requested data stream). Parameter that in any case is situated in an interval between 1.25 and 1.5 considered limit. In the other provinces, the data are constantly below the threshold value of 1.5. In general, on a regional scale, the impact of Covid-19 on welfare services is considered low and the increase in the transmission of infections moderate. On the other hand, the probability of an escalation of risk in the next 30 days is high, with regard to the ordinary hospital beds used (more than 50 percent), not enough to generate immediate serious alarms. Furthermore, the resilience of the intensive care network is good, falling below the critical occupancy threshold of 40 percent with bed utilization values that have not yet reached a level of risk that suggests imminent collapse.
So have the active sources that have grown but not so much (from 133 to 154 in the seven reckless days) to generate values out of control. Twenty-one parameters for each region are analyzed from the perspective of epidemiologists from the Higher Institute of Health. Although Campania has a fairly high Rt compared to other regions, it has low risk factors, low mortality, and a low rate of hospitalization for new positions. A number of factors arising from the swab mass also count in this analysis: not only positive ones but also those identified by known contact chains, those arising from clinicians’ requests for symptomatic symptoms versus those for screening that instead they refer to people who do not show signs of disease and who are positive for the virus, perhaps spreading, but certainly not to be considered sick.
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Even in the Naples area and province, also at risk due to the high population density and where Sars Cov 2 had reached high levels of incidence in mid-October, in the last two weeks there has been a slowdown in the progression. The scenario drawn by the numbers is obviously not capable of taking the pulse of a very overloaded health network, especially in Naples, with increasing difficulties to guarantee hospitalization quickly for a positive patient. Much work is being done to increase the supply and the conversion of ordinary places on the side of the public hospital network and on the side of accredited nursing homes. In short, we are waiting for the evolution of the picture, hoping that the exponential progression curve at the beginning of the month, stabilized in recent days, will consolidate this less worrying trend and that the wave of patients will gradually reduce the pressure on emergencies and the network . COVID-19. The objective now is to track the percentage of cases detected through contact tracing activities to correlate it with a reduction in those registered due to the sudden appearance of symptoms, while it is necessary to aim to increase the proportion of cases arising through activities detection today in marginal Campania, as it is required to increase the proportion of positives indicating the reason that led to the diagnostic evaluation which also involves the large portion of swabs attributed to the accredited sector.
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