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Paolo Becchi and Giuseppe Palma
Who will be the 46th president of the United States of America? If until a month ago the current president Donald Trump seemed doomed, in the last ten days he has reversed the predictions. In fact, the challenger, Democrat Joe Biden, Obama’s former vice president, is widely ahead in the sum of votes at the federal level, that is, in the calculation of votes at the general level of all states, but that vote does not is decisive. The only result that really matters is that of the Great Electors, which is the electoral victory that each candidate for president obtains state by state. Each State corresponds to a number of Large Electors in proportion to the number of resident population.
California, for example, has 55 voters, Texas 38, New York and Florida 29, Pennsylvania and Illinois 20, Ohio 18, and so on. The elector of each state votes for the candidate for president by stamping his name on the ballot; When the ballot box is closed, the ballots are inserted into a machine that counts the stamps of each candidate for president. In recent days voting by mail has also been done, in America it is allowed. The candidate who gets one more vote than the others wins all the Grand Electors of the State. It is the system called “the winner takes all”, that is, whoever wins by a single vote takes all the Great Electors of the State, except Maine and Nebraska where the attribution of the number of Great Electors is carried out with a majority system warm. But it is a very small matter. There are 50 federal states, plus the District of Columbia, for a total of 538 voters: the presidential candidate who obtains at least 270 voters wins.
ELECTORAL SYSTEM
In mid-December, on the 14th of this year, the Great Electors – as well as the elected results in each State (men of confidence indicated by each candidate for president) – vote for the Presidency respecting the electoral result of November. Voting of the ballots takes place in Congress on January 6, the new president is sworn in on January 20. An electoral system that has existed for more than two hundred years and that guarantees each federal state a specific weight in the election of the president, thus avoiding that the most populated but geographically less extensive states (for example, New York) are more important than the states. state. less populated but larger in the territory (for example, the entire central part of the US).
The polls that circulated in the press drums have the same tenor as those of four years ago, when Hillary Clinton was given 13 points ahead of Trump, they also lost to Biden by 7-8 percentage points. But as we’ve seen, only the state-by-state vote counts and not the general count at the federal level. In fact, “by state” surveys give us a different picture. The symbolic states of both candidates, California for Biden and Texas for Trump, 55 and 38 voters respectively, have never been in balance, while Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia are dancers. Until a month ago Biden ruled over you, but Trump has concentrated his entire post-recovery election campaign here and today the data gives him a recovery, in some cases even an advantage.
But unlike previous election rounds, Ohio will not be the key state of the White House victory this time. The outgoing president runs the risk of losing Arizona, one of the symbolic states of the Republicans, while in Ohio he should do it without major problems. This time Florida will be decisive, as in 2000 between GW Bush and Al Gore, but Trump also needs a victory in Virginia or Pennsylvania, where the president is catching up. So if Arizona (11) and Florida (29) went to Trump, the president could also lose in Ohio (18) and win only one between Virginia (13) and Pennsylvania (20). Ohio will not be decisive. Otherwise, a loss in Florida would make the results in Ohio, Arizona and one between Virginia and Pennsylvania decisive.
UNLIKELY DRAW
We find the “tie” hypothesis difficult, that is, that none of the presidential candidates gets 270 voters. In this case, the new president would be elected by the House of Representatives (435 members), currently with a Democratic majority but which will now be fully renewed together with the election of the president. It happened only twice, in 1820 and 1824. More worrisome, however, are the statements made a few days ago by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dem Nancy Pelosi, who blurted out an unfortunate sentence with which in any case ensures the Biden’s win: Whatever the final vote count is on Tuesday, he will be elected. On January 20, he will assume the presidency of the United States.
We do not believe in electoral fraud, even if it is not to exclude it, but more than anything in an intervention of the so-called Deep State – all Democrats – on the Electors at the time of their vote on December 14. Until now it has never happened and the result of the popular will has always been respected, but you never know. If Trump wins it will be for two reasons: successes in the economic sphere in support of the middle class and the call for freedom, a return to normality in these dark times made of health delusions and limitations of fundamental freedoms. Whatever the outcome, whoever wins abroad, opposition leaders in Italy would have a lot to learn from Trump, especially in terms of “freedom.”
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