2020 US elections, the (blue) mirage of Texas that may turn its back on Trump- Corriere.it

Republicans, however, flaunt their confidence. Senator Ted Cruz reported directly to the White House: don’t worry, it will end up like Beto in 2018. Two years ago in the elections of Medium term Former El Paso congressman Beto O’Rourke was defeated by two and a half percentage points by Cruz himself, who retained his seat in the Washington Congress. Democrats, however, prevailed in 13 of the 36 districts, particularly on the border between McAllen, Laredo and El Paso; they were affirmed in suburb, the middle-class suburbs around major cities, such as Dallas, Austin, and Houston, the fastest-growing metropolitan area in the United States. This wave keeps growing, even if we don’t know if it will be enough to dramatically change the balance, bringing Texas and its 38 delegates to the Democratic board.

The latest progressive candidate to seize the state of Lonely Star fu Jimmy Carter in 1976. Since then, absolute Republican domination, with consistent gaps. Even the overwhelming 1992 Bill Clinton was clearly defeated by Bush Senior and Obama here took a chance in both 2008 (-11.8%) and 2012 (-15.8%). Four years ago, Trump won comfortably with 9% more Say Hillary Clinton.

And we come to today. At this time the average of the surveys, also carried out by RealClearPolitics, You see it Trump continues to lead, but with a narrow margin and staggering by 2.3%. Obviously something important is happening in these parts. In 2016, the industrial and democratic North turned its back on Hillary. In 2020, the Republican and conservative South, including Georgia, could put Donald Trump in trouble.

During the last televised debate, the president warned Biden: Texas means oil, gas, God and guns – so you don’t stand a chance. Actually, Texas means other things too. Trump’s clumsy handling of the pandemic is having serious consequences here. The positive cases are now 900 thousand (out of 29 million inhabitants), the deaths more than 18 thousand. Contagion increases at an alarming rate, particularly affecting Latinos and putting pressure on hospitals, such as those in El Paso. Donald says in speeches: There was a hint of the pandemic in Texas, now gone. Texans, however, look around and see that this is not the case.

It is not a cyclical crisis, at this point questioning the entire structure of the system. The state’s economy is based on gas and oil, and the leader of the White House is right here. The sector of direct employment to only 250 thousand people, but the related activities are spread throughout the state. Over the decades, the industrial culture of the Republicans has facilitated the development of oil companies, in an endless race and even somewhat wild, as can be seen by visiting Midland, the American capital of shale gas. However, given few guarantees for the workforce. In Texas, only 5.2% of employees are union members and therefore can count on strong health coverage. From February to May of this year, 695,000 guaranteed Texans lost their jobs, suddenly finding himself without insurance protection, in the middle of the epidemic. All of these people added to the 4.9 million who no longer had a medical bill policy. We are talking about 29% of the population, the highest percentage in the United States.

The numbers can help to understand why the material foundations of the 40-year Republican reign are eroding. Trump also evokes God, the spiritual dimension. According to the 2010 census, at least 56% of Texans claim to be a faithful practitioner. Trumpians are confident they will be filled with the Catholic and Evangelical communitiesespecially after the appointment of hyperconservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

But from Louisiana, another deep southern state, writer Rod Dreher offers a very interesting analysis. Dreher, 53, a prominent exponent of conservative Christians. He just wrote a book that made the bestseller list of New York Times: Live not by Lies, a manual for Christian dissidents, published by Sentinel. The basic thesis that the radical left represents a serious threat to the religious world. But Trump is losing the consensus: I think 20% of conservative Christians will not vote for him this time. With his excesses, his authoritarian attitudes also divided us.

There are those who think that the strong Texan will continue to resist, but it seems only a matter of time. Just look at what has already happened in neighboring New Mexico, now a steady light in the Democratic constellation, and what is yet to happen in Arizona, where Biden leads the polls. In Phoenix the data fromearly voting indicate a predominance of Democrats, with a big push from young people and newcomers from California cities. The South is changing and can now transform America.