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Hospitals are filling up with patients COVID-19, the system is at risk. The number of new positive cases exceeds another psychological milestone, 30,000, the percentage of swabs performed is well above 10 percent and it is a wake-up call. The RT (transmission index that measures the speed of the epidemic and which should remain below 1) is worse than expected, ranging from a minimum of 1.49 to an average figure of 1.7. All Regions are above 1, even Lombardy and Piedmont have respectively 2.16 and 2.09, Bolzano at 1.96, Molise at 1.86, Valle d’Aosta at 1.89. Lazio is further apart at 1.51. According to the control room of the Ministry of Health and the Higher Institute of Health, which presented the new weekly report, 11 regions are at high risk of uncontrolled transmission.
Scenario 4, here are all the measures (including blocking) that can be activated immediately
And returning to the situation of yesterday, in one day there were another 95 places occupied in intensive care (total 1,746). Also according to the report, “this week for the first time it was reported that in some areas the critical threshold for occupancy of beds in the medical area (40 percent) was exceeded.” However, in this very worrying scenario, there are some very timid signals that are pressing to stop the decision that leads to an immediate blockade. First, the weekly report data does not yet show the effect of the last compression of the Dpcm last Saturday. Also, yesterday’s 24-hour data is very bad, but not as bad as you might expect: a week ago the number of positive cases steadily doubled, for two or three days the increase is around 60-70 percent. hundred. To understand, always taking Fridays as a reference: October 9, 5,372 new positive cases, October 16, 10,010 (almost double), October 23, 19,143 (slightly less than double that seven days before). Today we could have expected at least 36-37 thousand cases, instead there were 31,084: many, but less than in the worst case.
There are also many deaths – 199 – but in any case there is no increase that travels in proportion to the number of cases, although it must always be remembered that positives increase first, then hospitalizations, finally deaths. A senior member of the CTS states: “Despite the sharp rise in the curve, the health system is holding up. Of more than 31,000 new positives, yesterday we had only 95 new patients in the ICU, which represents 0.3%. And 94% of those infected are treated at home. It’s a different world from last spring … ». However, the report’s conclusions remain to underline the seriousness of the situation, starting with the criticality of hospital occupancy thresholds, the follow-up is now skipped due to too high numbers. With RT at 1.7 we are at the gates of scenario 4: if confirmed next week, it will require drastic measures. “It should be noted – experts say – that in some Italian regions the transmission speed is already compatible with a scenario 4 with the risk of health services in the short term.” The government remains on hold for now. Giuseppe Conte remains in a waiting position. “First we must carefully assess the effects of the measures taken with the Dpcm last Sunday and dispose of the repercussions on public opinion … Deciding now to further toughen up would not respect the principles of gradualism and progressivity followed until now,” said the premier. On the sidelines of the Council of Ministers who, alarmed, were asked what they planned to do.
IL LOCK LIGHT
This means that if the situation continues to worsen, the government will assess the new repression exactly fifteen days after the Decree of the Prime Minister of October 24: on November 7, to implement any additional restrictions from Monday the 9. Hoping, however, in contrast to the trend. what others do in Europe. In fact, yesterday Belgium announced the closure of schools and non-essential shops in addition to the obligation of smart work. A path that will also be followed tomorrow by Austrian Prime Minister Kurz, closing restaurants, cinemas and theaters and imposing a curfew at 20. In any case, if the trend of the epidemic continues to worsen, if the stop at 18 of the bar and Restaurants, gym closings, sports activities, museums, cinemas and theaters will not have had the desired effects, we will move towards a light confinement on the French model. Businesses, factories and offices will remain open, but all will have to stay home. Shops will also close (except food), and you can only leave to go to work, do shopping, for medical reasons and to take children to primary school or kindergarten (there are those who push to get out of the middle). The closure of regional borders is also practically safe, as local closures decided by the Regions are very likely in the coming days. Precisely in view of a new Dpcm, Conte preferred to haggle the probable controversies with part of the majority and with the opposition. Thus, he asked the presidents of the Chamber and Senate, Roberto Fico and Elisabetta Casellati, “to explore the possibility of identifying, in full autonomy, the headquarters and the most appropriate modalities so that the government can have an opportunity for constant dialogue with Parliament in the to arrive at an immediate comparison on the occasion of the elaboration of any new Dpcm “. As if to say: get ready, ad hours, even during the next weekend. Night and day.
Last update: 01:54
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