Coronavirus Tracking Issue: “We are moving towards scenario 4. Risk is high in 11 regions, please consider further stricter restrictions”

Eleven Regions I’m in “High risk” of a uncontrolled transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 and another 8 are in “moderate risk “ with “High possibility” migrate to high risk in the next month. “We are in a situation compatible with scenario 3 towards stage 4 ″, summarizes the president of the Higher Institute of Health Silvio Brusaferro presenting the Weekly tracking indicating the transmission capacity of the virus, theRt, a 1.70, photograph a situation in “Rapid deterioration” and invites governors to evaluate “Timely restrictions”. Brusaferro recalled that the risk scenarios were “Shared” also with the local authorities, from which a clamor had arisen last Saturday before the measures hypothesized in the Dpcm by the government. In some regions, he emphasized, scenario 4 was reached, that of red alert, “with risk of delay Health services In the short term. “In addition,” we observed a greater difficulty find complete data because of severe overload territorial services ”and“ this could lead to underestimate the Transmission speed ” in some areas. The regions classified as high risk are Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Piedmont, Bolzano, Calabria, Abruzzo, Basilicata, Veneto, Liguria, Val d’Aosta, Puglia, Sicily, Tuscany. The 8 where the situation can easily get out of control are Campania, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Molise, Trento, Umbria. All, in short, except for Molise present marked critical problems.

Compared to the week October 12-18, the report that ‘covers’ until October 25, reports the duplication from new cases reported – 100,446 cases compared to 52,960 cases in the previous week – and exceeding critical threshold of employment in medical areas (40%) in one area of ​​the country. And here they are 13 Regions with a probability greater than 50% to get to the critical threshold occupation of both patients with symptoms and beds occupied in intensive care: this is Abruzzo, Campania, Emilia romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lazio, Liguria, Lombardy, Molise, Piedmont, Bolzano, Trento, Puglia and Sicily. The monitoring also highlights the duplication of symptomatic cases (from 27,117 to 54,377). In short, even if the Italian scenario is still currently type 3, according to last week’s data, scenario 4 is compatible with the situation of four regions (Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Piedmont, Bolzano Calabria).

The recommendations are clear: “A drastic reduction physical interactions between people to relieve pressure on Health services “. And the Faculty of Health also believes “basic” that “the population avoids everything contact opportunities with people other than yours housing core which are not strictly necessary. “In conclusion: “Stay home as long as possible”. Instead, the Autonomous Regions and Provinces are invited to “carry out a risk analysis, even at the subregional level ”, but above all to“ consider a timely lift of the Mitigation measures in the most affected areas according to risk level and based on the guidelines “.

Brusaferro pointed out that the last Dpcm he introduced “Important measures” that “are being implemented and whose effects we will see in end of next week, then after the famous 15-20 days, which are the moments to see how they act on the spread of the infection ”. At these standards, he emphasized, “or insert additional measurements what could be ea Nacional level and at the local level. “The regions, he added,” are analyzing the data and I think that from the result of this analysis it will be possible to evaluate at the same time whether to accompany with additional local measures, where for example the growth curve is more significant than in other places “. The scenarios contained in the document that indicate how Italy slides towards” 4 “, which is the worst”, have a margin of flexibility and we are in a scenario in which the country has been adopting increasingly restrictive measures ”.

The value of the region Rt by region

Abruzzo Rt 1.13
Basilicata Rt 0.83
Calabria Rt 1.84
Campania Rt 1.29
Emilia Romagna Rt 1.6
Friuli Venezia Giulia Rt 1.47
Lazio Rt 1.43
Liguria Rt 1.35
Lombardia Rt 2.01
Walk Rt 1.35
Molise: Rt 2.1
Bolzano Rt 1.92
Trento Rt 1.56
Piedmont Rt 1.99
Puglia Rt 1.47
Sardinia Rt 1.04
Sicily Rt 1.38
Tuscany Rt 1.19
Umbria Rt 1.45
Aosta Valley 0.92
Veneto 1.47

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