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The numbers of infections by Covid-19 are constantly growing, today almost 27 thousand, and the value of the transmissibility index Rt presumably projecting Italy into the scenario 4, the last and most serious foreseen in the document “Prevention and response to COVID-19” prepared byIss.
In fact, it is very likely, according to what was learned from qualified sources, that the Rt value exceeded the 1.5 registered last week and referred to the October 12-18 period. This is due to the sharp increase in cases. Rt above 1.5 is one of the elements that outlines the most serious scenario of the epidemic.
Blocking, Conte: «The Rt index has reached a critical threshold of 1.5. Rapidly worsening epidemic “
But what exactly is scenario 4?
The impossibility of tracking all cases, an overload of the health system, and great difficulty in protecting frail subjects are anticipated. But let’s read when it’s written in the ISS document. Scenario 4 is defined as a “situation of critical uncontrolled transmissibility in the health system in the short term, with regional values of Rt systematically and significantly higher than 1.5 (that is, with estimates of 95% CI of Rt higher than 1.5) Even if an epidemic of these characteristics were to lead to more aggressive mitigation and containment measures in the affected territories, such a scenario could quickly lead to a high number of cases and clear signs of an overload of care services, without the possibility of track the situation. origin of new cases. The growth in the number of cases could lead to an overload of care services in 1-1.5 months, unless the epidemic spreads predominantly among the younger age groups, as observed in the period July-August 2020, and managed to protect the most fragile categories (for example, the elderly). In this sense, it should be noted that it seems sufficient It is unlikely to be able to protect the most fragile categories from an epidemic characterized by these transmissibility values.
🔴 # COVID-19 – The situation in Italy as of October 29: https: //t.co/8ciMmO9yfx pic.twitter.com/KmI5bHMyRG
– Ministry of Health (@MinisteroSalute) October 29, 2020
How is scenario 4 approached?
If the high-risk situation persists for a period of more than three weeks, “very aggressive containment measures” must be taken, he says. The words to summarize them are: movement limits and locks. Here is the document prepared by the ISS.
Scenario 4, like the other 3, also foresees a three-step classification of weekly risk in the Regions / PA: moderate risk (for at least 4 consecutive weeks for a higher risk assessment); high / very high risk (for less than 3 consecutive weeks) and high / very high risk (for 3 or more consecutive weeks and unmanageable situation). This last level is characterized by “generalized community transmission, clusters that no longer differ from each other, new cases not related to known transmission chains, sustained pressure on Prevention Departments”, and among the actions indicated is “considering the possibility of of expanded regional / provincial restrictions. ‘
Last updated: 20:28
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