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The latest restrictions were put in place less than a week ago. The Decree of the Prime Minister of October 24 has not yet been able to demonstrate its possible effectiveness. And before understanding whether the anti-Covid measures are working or not, we will have to wait a few days. Experts say you have to wait a couple of weeks to understand what will happen after the dpcm and the arranged shutdowns. The government has already set what is considered a threshold: when more than 2,500 places are filled in intensive care, the closure (probably widespread) will be inevitable. And there are currently more than 1,500 intensive care places occupied. But before reaching the emergency shutdown the intermediate measures to be implemented are also others.
Before the confinement there are some steps follow. Decisions that could be warning signs, starting with territorial closures, perhaps in some of the most affected cities that could be isolated at the request of the Regions. The next step could be to close regional borders. And, again, other constraints could affect the world of schools: before the general closure, distance education could be imposed in all schools, at all levels. However, this is only the last hypothesis, the one that the government wants to exclude at all costs. To understand what the next steps could be, reference can be made to the study prepared by the Technical-Scientific Committee and reported in a document published by Iss and the Ministry of Health.
What the current scenario foresees 3
As the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte explained, Italy is currently in scenario 3. Which, in turn, foresees different situations depending on the trend of contagion and the period in which we find ourselves. Scenario 3 occurs with an Rt between 1.25 and 1.5: in this phase achieves “limit transmission potential only modestly“And there is a real risk of”care service overload in 2-3 months“We are currently in the high-risk phase within the third scenario, with cases not related to known transmission chains and increased pressure for prevention departments.
The scenario is the one foreseen in the period November-December (They differ according to the months due to the different impact of normal seasonal influenza), with an impact of other diseases considered moderate. This scenario implies a physical distancing with the closure of discos and bars and restaurants even only at specific times such as at night, as is the case now. It is possible to impose the obligation to wear a mask outdoors and also close schools and universities, but preferring the hypothesis of distance education in some cases and the suspension of some lessons considered to be of greater risk (for example, physical education). In this phase it is possible to limit mobility for some areas and restore, if necessary, agile work. In addition, temporary local restrictions can be envisaged at the sub-provincial level, or red zones can be established for at least three weeks. Restrictions on interregional and intraregional mobility are also possible.
What will be done before any blockage?
Before reaching stage 4 and in its most extreme conception, with a emergency shutdown widespread, there are some measures the government could implement. Meanwhile, the classification would be considered “very high”From the third scenario, a step higher than the current one. The situation would no longer be considered manageable with the current extraordinary measures and could be assessed provincial or regional restrictions. This situation could involve the large-scale restoration of agile work and a number of limitations to individual mobility. In addition, it is possible to activate distance learning whenever (when possible) and until the closure of schools and universities. These are the stages contemplated in the document prepared by the technicians before reaching scenario 4, that of regional Rt significantly higher than 1.5. And that the government could implement before deciding on a new blockade.
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