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In Italy, infections reach 25,000 per day with a ratio of buffers (nearly 200,000) to positives rising to 12.5%. France closes for a month and Germany is no exception. And if the stock markets collapse (Milan lost 4%) and in Europe there is nothing but blockage, even in Italy this perspective takes shape. Nobody in the government makes more mystery.
The model is France and what Macron has announced could be copied two weeks late. But be careful, explain who in the government monitors the crisis, the problem is not only the numbers, but the ability to support the system: if you could lighten the load on hospitals, with general practitioner swabs, maybe you could avoid closing everything. If, on the contrary, the infection threshold increases too much, then we should move to level 4: closed bars, restaurants, shops, the borders between the regions. Only factories, offices and elementary schools open.
To ask first is Matteo Renzi: «Better a total confinement than these half measures». But even among ministers and parliamentarians most in touch with scientists, who photograph a rapidly deteriorating scene, the hypothesis of a “closing light” in two weeks is not ruled out. The most rigorous ministers invite us to look at France, “our numbers lead there”, they say. Minister Roberto Gualtieri himself, in his conversations, says that “the best measure for the economy is to contain the pandemic and whatever is decided there will be resources to support it.” In short, to quote Draghi, “everything has to be done.” The only one holding back seems to be the premier: “We expect the effects of the Dpcm measures in the next 15 days, then we will see,” he said from above with the unions, denying a closure next week.
The meeting
In fact, at the summit with the group’s leaders, Conte made a commitment to Maria Elena Boschi, who will meet again in 15 days to see if some closures can be mitigated, perhaps thanks to a slowdown in infections. But the most realistic see the opposite scenario. Fresh out of this “frank” meeting with the prime minister, where the leaders of the group prosecuted him by asking Parliament to participate in decision-making, one of them admits that “if the contagion curve does not flatten, we will necessarily move on to more restrictive “. While Minister Boccia challenges Trentino’s permissive ordinance, which widens the mesh with respect to the Dpcm, he explains to the Conte Chamber that “at present, according to the CTS study, in Italy we have a type 3 scenario. The government is respected by adopt the Dpcm. Severe measures, but necessary, otherwise the epidemiological curve is destined to get completely out of control ». And if at this rate in about ten days we reach 40 thousand infections, the hope is that they will stop, creating the so-called “plateau”.
The date: November 9
On the contrary, you could go to “level 4”, a confinement where you can only go out to go to work and take your children to school, closed borders between regions. Not to mention, the red areas of Milan and Naples are already being talked about as a hot topic.
But Covid goes beyond politics, “while someone discusses how to fix the wall, the house collapses,” warns Professor Galli from the border of the Sacco hospital in Milan. At the epicenter of the Lombardy volcano, with 7,500 cases and more than 1,100 in Milan alone, the health system is at the bottom, as in Puglia, where Governor Emiliano closes schools. Then time is running out. The date circled on the calendar is November 6, every Friday there is the ISS report, which gives a picture of the situation. And on Saturday a new Dpcm could come out with effect from November 9.
In that case, there are those who also see the prospect of a public health government making its way, after Zingaretti’s call to involve the opposition and the glove picked up by Silvio Berlusconi. We talked about it in the Palaces … Conte is very cautious.
