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By the time you read this article, there will be eight days left to vote in the United States between Republican President Donald Trump and his rival, former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden. By now you know everything about both of them, Trump’s past as a construction contractor in Manhattan, his three wives, the accusations of being too close to Putin, Biden’s past as a senator and Obama deputy, his wife who died in a car accident with her little daughter. , accuses his son Hunter of being too friendly with the Ukrainian oligarchs.
You have read the articles that explain, between the lines, that the polls are wrong, as in 2016, and therefore Trump will win, and the others who have, with equal certainty, clarified that Biden’s advantage is twice that of Hillary . Clinton four years ago and therefore will win. You have heard a lot that the Electoral College does not count the national vote, the 538 points at stake in 50 states and Washington DC, a majority of 270, the gurus have made it clear that the violence in the demonstrations for civil rights brings back to the Climate Law and Order of 1968. with Richard Nixon, that presidents are often re-elected and that the last one to not be re-elected was Democrat Jimmy Carter, defeated by the great Ronald Reagan in 1980 (and this time the gurus have struggled to to shoot big, because the last president not to be re-elected was the Republican father Bush, defeated by Bill Clinton in 1992, it happens to the best gurus not having the slightest idea of what they say …).
Well: you have already heard them all and the only thing that interests you between now and November 3, while you try to break your life between the ordinances a lot for the kilo of Prime Minister Conte, remote work, fear for your loved ones, worry for the economy is: who wins in America, tell us and we will have dinner before 6 in the afternoon. Therefore, I will try this article, without knowing who wins because the author is not a guru, and not even – ay – paragurú, to explain to you where we are in the race to the White House, in which America they are facing and with what chances of victory.
However, first of all, let’s begin to address one of the recurring statements in the debate of the last election days: Ah Ah, speak up, but the 2016 polls did not catch us, they were wrong, Trump won, people humiliated the experts (It is important that the statement is preceded by the mocking exclamation Ah Ah, otherwise it will not work, not on the talk shows, not in the little bar on the corner square).
Is it really so? The polls “were wrong” in 2016, and therefore shouldn’t we trust them today, preferring to calculate with the nose of the gurus, Biden’s mistakes and missteps, Trump’s missteps? Let’s see. Two days after the 2016 vote, according to a reconstruction by the Five Thirty Eight website pollster Dhrumil Mehta, corroborated by an investigation by Datalab Luiss and G. Elliott Morris, head of Data Journalism for the weekly The Economist, a Marist survey assigned to the candidate. Democrat, former Secretary of State and First Lady Hillary Clinton, a 2% lead in the vote. And the Marist pollsters can be proud, because, in fact, with 65,853,514 million votes, or 48.2%, against 62,984,828 million votes, 46.1%, Clinton won the popular vote by 2, 1%, as expected.
Of course, however, in Great Britain with the single seat in which the victorious parliamentarian takes everything, in France with the double round and in Italy with the electoral laws that we manage to weave every year, increasingly mephitic, the ballot boxes then they must be pantographed. In the current system and in the United States, Clinton’s absolute vote, accurately predicted by various institutes, had to be replicated in the states and at the National Electoral College.
Things get complicated here, Mehta, dubbed the “Doctor Survey,” insists, and while several polls were too optimistic for Clinton, the average of the polls, which is the average comparison across all polls, led to a precise + 2% for the Democrats and in fact the average of the polls was very close to the truth of the vote in 2000, Bush-Gore, 2004, Bush-Kerry, 2008, Obama-McCain, 2012, Obama-Romney. Regarding the States, the margin of error grows, often from 3% national to 5%, the findings are more confusing, not all samples calibrated ad hoc. Result, an average error greater than the expected margin, 5.4 which confused the data. Reason for the error? The undecided were determined to vote for Trump but also not to tell the interviewers, and secondly, the samples were carefully calibrated by age, ethnicity, gender, class, region, but not by education level and the actual gap in The 2016 election was precisely the difference between white male voters with high school degrees and college graduates. Of the 8,188,027 citizens who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and, four years later, elected Trump, Diavolo and Acquasanta or Acquasanta and Diavolo according to the guru of reference, the majority were undergraduate white males, which the champions did not have. “Heavy” enough.
It is not a new error, societies change, technology also and between polls and opinions the persecution is perennial, with periodic delays.
After the election won in 1948, Democratic President Harry Truman had himself filmed in a historic photo, smiling the first edition of the Chicago Tribune newspaper with the full-page title “Dewey defeats Truman”, Dewey defeats Truman despite Republican candidate Dewey had been beaten. And during the Tuesday 2004 vote, exit polls gave Democratic Senator Kerry a winner against Republican President Bush, prompting the Manifesto to make the same mistake as the Chicago Tribune with the summary of “Good Morning America. “And a photo of Kerry cheering. Both gaffes are related to new technology, the Chicago Tribune’s post-vote poll was conducted by telephone and many Democratic voters, workers and farmers, still did not have one at home, while in 2004 exit polls were they often performed online, they talked about it. first the Washington Post and the Corriere della Sera, but Karl Rove, the astute adviser to son Bush, mobilized thousands of evangelicals, hidden from the web radar, overturning the estimates.
Trump’s victory was, in 2016, too close to the wool, in Michigan it went to 1/5 of 1%, to be captured by a poll, and, a week after the polls, the Five Thirty Eight site photographed reality accurately enough, giving Hillary Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning, versus the 28.6% given to Donald Trump. Now you see, here the TV gurus release the classic “Ah, ah! The polls were wrong! ”But to distinguish guru from paraguru, you have to think about what 71% probability against 29% means (rounding +0.5 -0.5). It means that the average of the polls gave Trump more than a quarter of a chance of victory, in statistical terms a very solid element. Would you take a plane that has a quarter chance of crashing? And if he gave you a box of chocolates with a smile, inviting you with a flute voice, “Darling, here are 100 candies, 71 are excellent, mmmm, unfortunately 29 have a cyanide syringe and, at first taste, they make you dry”, you would taste Or would you walk away Legs up? 29% of our lives seem like a fatal curse, in politics, ha ha, a ridiculous percentage, look at the Pew Research figures.
Today the average of the survey is very different from that of 2016 and assigns Joe Biden and Donald Trump a much more marked defect. National polls see Biden at 52%, against Trump at 42.9%, a gap that, a week before the election and with a record of votes already cast, by mail or in person in “early voting”, (9 days before more Americans voted by mail than did not vote in 2016) it will be difficult to complete. And in terms of the chances of returning to the White House, rookie Trump’s hefty 28.6% has shrunk to a slim 12%, while Biden raises a robust 87%. Since they’re now aspiring gurus too, before you launch your bombastic Ah, Ah, figure out that statewide these numbers translate to 193.2 Electoral College votes for Trump, compared to 344.8 for Biden, a majority, remember that, in 270. Do not exclaim, Ah, Ah, so Biden won, remember the plane with a 12% probability and the box with 12 chocolates of 100 lethal, 12% is less than 87, but far from 0. Trump is late but running away. Similar numbers from data journalist The Economist Morris.
What’s more, we vote in a pandemic, Iran and Russia infiltrate the electoral lists of the United States as if they were sticks of butter, surprises are not lacking, according to Nate Cohn, pollster for the New York Times, Covid spikes in the regions help to Biden, but the race is still open. Keep this in mind, Trump’s jokes about “Kamala Harris is a monster” against the vice president nominated by the Democratic senator, nor Biden’s criticism of the oil industry for reform, will not change the opinion of the few who remain in uncertainty. . There are two different ideas of America, one closed and one open, one nationalist, the other multilateral, one conservative and the other liberal, to confront each other, and they do not count gaffes or insults, they weigh culture, politics, deep identities, religion, economy .
As gurus squabble on TV and online over Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – three states Clinton lost to lazy gullibility – she didn’t campaign or give her husband Bill time to do so, you look at Ohio, Texas, Florida and Georgia. , that Trump should have won without a hitch and is still in the running. In Texas the Democrats do not win by Jimmy Carter 1976, in Georgia by Bill Clinton 1992. However, here is the substance of the game, if once again Trump wins by breaking the cap with his 12%, the demographic and cultural revolution that shakes it. The United States induces a historic realignment of the electorate. Anyone who sits at the desk in the White House Oval Office, built from the wood of the arctic ship “Resolute”, a gift from Queen Victoria 140 years ago, January 2021 to January 2025, will see the two parties determined to deep political reworking, plus trivial misstep. Young people, ages 18-29, have already voted, as a percentage, more than 29% compared to 2016, with peaks of + 121% in Michigan and +40 in Texas, with a prevalence of Democrats. Women, white and not, pass to the Democrats, such as those over 65, scared by Covid, Trump waits for faithful white men without degrees, in an increase among African Americans and Hispanics and in the Republican militant base that, compared to the Threatened blue wave Democrats, you come to the polls en masse, invisible to the polls like the 2004 Rove Evangelicals.
So I don’t know, I hope I don’t disappoint you, that he will win the presidency, but believe me, not even the gurus, who hide typhus badly, don’t know. These, however, are the positions on the field of play, and we will see, calmly, what happens. Instead, I know that the America of the 21st century will change its face, passion, faith, age, identity and, from now on, it will always choose who, best, will be able to represent it in its chaotic, changing and often hostile identities. In a few years neither the Democratic nor the Republican Party will resemble the formations of Roosevelt and Obama, Nixon and Reagan that we knew well, absorbing massive doses of socialism and populism, looking at the market and capitalism with new eyes. This formidable revolution requires, to be understood, humility, passion and reason, not guttural Ah Ah and we must pay close attention to it because soon, very soon, the bell for radical change, from Washington, will ring in the European capitals.
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