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“If a gazelle sees a lion, it doesn’t think it’s a platypus just to control the anxiety it feels inside. Incredible: I think it’s a lion ”. Words of the sociologist Luca Ricolfi, confronted in a July interview with HuffPost, reminding us of moments in life when we prefer to be told “everything will be fine,” rather than believing talking crickets whispering bitter prospects, even when they turn out to be true at the end of the day. Because there, speaking of Covid, paraphrasing the old song by Caterina Caselli, the truth “hurts, you know.”
It happened with phase two, starting in late May, and then even more so with the arrival of summer, when containment measures were relaxed and many began to believe that the pandemic was a monster on the way. of decline, an issue about to be left behind, or at least manageable enough to allow us to return to our previous lives. At that time there were those who, at the cost of unpopular or spoilers, had tried to open our eyes to the price we would have paid for our sometimes carefree summer life, composed of beaches, discos, eating in restaurants and wearing a little. baroque mask. In short, a series of experts who, in one way or another, had warned us of the very high cost of lowering our guard, but who preferred to pretend not to listen.
Sociologist Ricolfi in July: “It cannot be ruled out that with the arrival of the cold season the observance of the rules of behavior is no longer enough, and the epidemic will begin again”
“We are in the darkest moment of the night”, Ricolfi told us on July 10, explaining that although things were not really bad, “the interpretive uncertainty about the very little data that ‘Lor Signori’ is kind enough to communicate. us, humble subjects of this unfortunate republic. ”In his opinion, the truth is that“ in the first half of June, that is, coinciding with the liberalization of movements between municipalities, something serious and new happened. ”He pointed out that, in Based on the data processed by the Hume Foundation -which also produces an important daily thermometer of the epidemic- “until then, week by week, the number of critical provinces decreased, since then it has stopped decreasing and, in the last two weeks has started to rise systematically and worryingly. ”On what would happen in the fall he called himself“ much less certain ”and asked himself a question:“ Besides restarting the economy, we should not worry – precisely e for the good of the economy – to avoid the arrival of a second wave. ” ? “But what, at that time, made you less prone to optimism?” The trend in the number of people subjected to swabs. “Although national authorities had understood that much remained to be done,” most Regions are reducing the number of tampons. If more were made, instead of less, the data on the number of infected would be even more worrying. And I would not be among the few who, for three weeks, report danger. “When the sociologist spoke it was a moment, we all remember, in which the epidemic seemed to be under control, but had wanted to indicate the reasons: “Neither the self-discipline of the adult population (the young population is already out of control), nor the readiness of the health authorities in the extinction of the new shoots, but it is simply the fact that the climatic factors are contrasting and balancing the behavioral ones ”. Since, when the interview was released, it was vacation time, Ricolfi had said something else that now cannot be hidden: “I can be wrong, of course, but for me it is simply incredible that those who govern us have not yet wanted to accept . a thing of pure common sense: international tourism is incompatible with a pandemic ”. In this sense, however, according to him, “our government does not have the greatest responsibility (for once I sympathize with Conte) but international organizations do, first of all the World Health Organization and the European Union. No country can close or drastically limit international connections if most of the other countries do not do it as well. ”And then his sentence on what we would have experienced, in autumn and winter, if the new epidemic swarm had arrived:“ A catastrophe ”.
Infectious disease specialist Galli in May: “The second wave was in other countries that opened”
Much earlier, in May, on the occasion of the inauguration of the second phase, it was the director of the department of infectious diseases of the Sacco Hospital in Milan, Massimo Galli, who indicated, in an interview with Republic, the risks to which we were exposing ourselves from that moment and that would have led us to the second wave, hypothesis, he explained, that “scares the World Health Organization” and that “there have been other countries that have opened, although it brought dramatic situations “. We had moved to phase two “for reasons of absolute necessity,” he admitted, recalling however that “we are faced with a reopening experiment that relies primarily on masks and spacing.” Where was the point? If openness occurs, it is because there are no alternatives, but we must live it with the maximum sense of responsibility in our behavior ”. Basically, he also did not deny the need to “not let economic activities die”, but warned of great risks, especially linked to the places of greatest contagion, in his opinion mainly the family context. “The risk is that they take the virus out and take it home. Businesses can do this too, many have independently equipped themselves to limit outbreaks. Today for the first time I went for a walk with my wife, I went to the Parco Sempione. I found many people around, and this does not surprise me. It is normal that people now feel inclined to do it, even if it is not good: I have seen many young people in groups, more or less crowded, some without masks. This is not OK”.
Virologist Crisanti had proposed his Buffer Plan in August, but it was not implemented
Another “talking cricket” for unsuspected times is Andrea Crisanti, director of the Department of Molecular Medicine of the University of Padua, who already in August had proposed to the government a Plan, which had fallen into oblivion, which provided for the monitoring of all those belonging to to positives and up to 400 thousand swabs to quench root shoots. Il virgolo, who is famous not only for being the proponent of the massive tampon project for the Veneto region, but, despite himself, for the ruling on the possible “Christmas blockade” that prevented many on social media from panettone follow awaiting response from Conte’s executive. His document indicated a strategy to avoid the second wave, which we are now experiencing. “Now – he commented to Sole24ore A few days ago – after almost three months, new decrees from the Prime Minister were issued, intended to impact our quality of life and our work activities, patiently endured in the hope that they can help reduce infection. According to him, “we persist in the error of not asking ourselves how, once the contagion is reduced with progressively restrictive measures, we can keep it at low levels. Not answering this question will condemn us to a turn of restrictive measures and a return to normality that will have disastrous effects on the economy, education and social life ”. A solution for living with the virus? “Take it to low levels of transmission to maintain a decent quality of life and boost the economy,” he explained days ago to Agora on Raitre, and he only knows one way: “By interrupting the transmission chains, but with 10-12,000 cases a day, no system is capable of doing it”. And now that the new infections are almost 20,000? The answer comes alone.
Gimbe in August: “For the first time since the beginning of April, admissions to the ICU increase”
The Gimbe Foundation must undoubtedly be added to the list of those who invited to curb the enthusiasm from “out of danger”, which already in a press release of August 13 indicated “red spies that invite you not to lower your guard and maintain a great sense of individual and collective responsibility “. The analysis came from epidemiological surveys conducted from August 5 to 11. “It is confirmed,” declared President Nino Cartabellotta, “not only a clear growth trend in new cases and, to a lesser extent, in hospitalized patients with symptoms, but for the first time since the beginning of April there has been an increase in hospitalizations in intensive care ”. He spoke of “a progressive increase in new cases, whether indigenous, imported (foreigners) or Italians returning abroad on vacation.” According to Gimbe data, if in the first three weeks of July the new cases remained stable (around 1,400 a week), in the last two they had progressively increased from: 1,736 in the week of July 22 to 28 to 1,931 in the week from July 29 to August 4 and 2,818 in the week of August 5 to 11. “Unfortunately – said Cartabellotta – if on the one hand the Government and the Regions try to implement new actions to stop the increase in infections, public communication continues to be influenced by messages that minimize the risks, totally ignoring the dynamics and times that affect the rise of the epidemiological curve and relying on the scientific illiteracy of a part of the population ”. Finally, he called on all experts to “provide balanced, objective public communications and, in the event of uncertainty, follow the precautionary principle.” Otherwise, he said, “the specter of new lockdowns looms over the start of the school year.”
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