[ad_1]
His unstoppable continues Covid Race in Italy. The data for Friday, October 23, are ruthless: 19,143 new cases of Covid, a new absolute record for infections in our country, compared to 182,032 swabs made. The total number of infected people, including victims and those cured, amounts to 484,869 since the start of the pandemic.
the intensive therapy have increased by 57 units compared to the previous day, breaking the critical threshold of a thousand, as was the first day of the national shutdown on March 9: 1,049 people are currently hospitalized in intensive care.
Why Italy is falling
The epidemic numbers say we are failing. The delay in the buffers, in the location, in the organization is now evident and shows important deficiencies on the part of the Government and the institutions to face the crisis.
“Trying to reassure by saying that the situation of coronavirus infections in Italy is not like in March, it is like falling from the 20th floor and reaching the third, saying ‘so far so good’. The problem is not how you are on the third floor, but what happens next ”.
This is said by the co-founder of YouTrend and professor at the University of Bologna Lorenzo Pregliasco in an interview with the Huffington Post, which had just forecast the surpassing of intensive care hospitalizations between yesterday and today.
What is the same and what is different between now and March?
“It is a rather weak mantra to say that we are not like March. It means that it is not comparable to the worst health and death crisis we have had in the last 70 years. Those who make this comparison have a precedent that is not exactly positive or acceptable, in the first place ”.
The second observation is that it is a ‘statement “substantially false: whoever does so uses the comparison with March to reassure himself about the current situation. This does not mean that we should panic, because panic is never necessary, but it does mean that today we see a growth trend for some indicators that is completely comparable to that of late February / early March ”.
However, the current difference compared to March is important: at that time these data were mainly concentrated in one or two regions, while today this situation is more widespreadexplains Pregliasco. “On the one hand, this aspect can be considered positive, because the pressure is more diluted. On the other hand, it is a risk because it means that the situation could worsen in a generalized way throughout the country.
How is the system going test and trace
Meanwhile, as the president of the Gimbe Foundation Nino Cartabellotta confirmed to us at QuiFinanza, the the test and trace system seems to have bypassed. “The monitoring mechanism begins to show serious criticism from the point of view of accessibility to the swabs and the results. When the number of positives increases so much, it becomes difficult to track: 100 cases can be traced, not 10,000 ”.
This is the first obstacle, which is directly related to the second, or the difficulty accessing tests (Here you will find the QuiFinanza tampon guide). This difficulty, combined with waiting times for results, blocks the mechanism for identifying new positives and contagion runs out of control.
Because growth is exponential
What is important to understand at this point is whether or not we are in a situation exponential growth of contagion. And unfortunately the answer is yes.
“When there is a stable doubling from week to week there is clearly exponential growth,” explains Pregliasco. So it may be that, looking at the data from day to day, it is not daily, in the sense that there are fluctuations ”.
But the weekly figure is clear: if the growth percentage is stable, and so it has been weekly for the last 14 days, the growth is exponential. “This is not an interpretation, it is mathematics.”
[ad_2]
