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The increase in infected people began to grow exponentially since the beginning of October. As of September 30, the national trend followed a pace that was establishing itself at a value much lower than the first wave of the epidemic. Intensive care and hospitals suffered no pain. As of October 1, an exponential growth began, clearly, which never stopped reaching values much higher than the first wave in three weeks, today exceeding 19,000 new cases of infections a day and causing the saturation of intensive care .
The event
No healthcare system can support such exponential growth for long and this is now very clear. To change the trend of the epidemic overnight, you need an event that has suddenly changed the social behavior of millions of people. An event that occurred about a week before October 1, an event that involved all of Italy. Schools reopened on September 24 in six Italian regions, including some highly populated ones like Campania and Puglia. Almost all the others had to reopen 10 days earlier, on September 14. But from September 20 to 21 there were elections: of the 9 extra-school days, at least 4 were lost. Considering that the exit was slow due to Covid, in fact the school was restarted at full speed around September 24 suddenly putting nearly eight million students on the move: exactly what is needed to explain the data.
And give
The Civil Protection data is also confirmed by the few data available from the Ministry of Education and related to the school population. In week September 26 – October 3 the growth rate of infections in teaching staff is the same as that of the rest of the Italian population, that of non-teaching staff is slightly higher (around 8%), while that of students is 36% higher than the rest of the population. In the following week the situation changes drastically: the growth rate of those infected among students is 2.65 times (+ 265%) higher than that of the rest of the population, that of the teaching staff exactly double (+ 200%), that of the non-teaching staff 1.67 times (+ 167%) more than the rest of the Italian population!
Amplifier
The reopening of the schools acted as a powerful contagion amplifier, not necessarily due to defects in the organization of the activity within the school. Millions of children have started to regularly go out into school buildings, taking with them the effects of their attendance, sports, transportation, extracurricular activities, and social habits. This has probably produced a formidable amplifying effect that, starting with young people, affects, in decreasing order of intensity, teachers and school workers, people who live several hours a day in contact with them, as well as, obviously, the rest of society. In dealing with what happens at school, we have forgotten about everything that happens to young people outside of school. and that is put into circulation with devastating effects. As of October 1, the epidemic began to rise very fast, doubling every 7 days, exceeding, on October 23, the 170,000 infected: in a week we could exceed 300,000, in two weeks they could amount to more than 600,000, figures absolutely unsustainable.
Urgent elections
We know they await us very urgent and drastic elections, but we can’t blindly hit closing everything: the numbers speak for themselves, With the reopening of the school, we have inadvertently accelerated the epidemic that, when passing through the young, leads to a generalized contagion of the whole society. If we have to intervene in a very short time, the most logical option is to switch to distance learning in a substantial, if not total way and then return with much more attention to reopening schools with all related services. No more time for palliative or debate. The alternative is a generalized blockade with a total blockade of the country’s economy.
October 24, 2020 (change October 24, 2020 | 07:29)
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