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Italy has entered the scenario 3 of the Coronavirus emergency. Words used by the Higher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health that in the weekly monitoring of the epidemic in our country spoke of a significant deterioration “and with a type 3 scenario with a higher rate of progression in some Italian regions: in fact, values Rt greater than 1 in most Italian autonomous regions / provinces and points out that it is only possible to modestly limit the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 “. In short, with infections that have exceeded the record threshold of 19 thousand In just 24 hours and the increase in the rate of transmission of the virus, which amounted to 1.5 at the national level, the situation becomes worrying. But what exactly does scenario 3 mean? And what awaits us next?
The 4 pandemic scenarios raised by experts
On October 12, the Ministry of Health, the National Institute of Health (ISS) and other health institutions published “Prevention and response to COVID-19“, a detailed document that describes the scenarios in which Italy could find itself in the coming months, with the progressive spread of the Coronavirus pandemic. The study predicts 4 scenarios: the first, with the situation of localized transmission (outbreaks) substantially unchanged compared to the period July-August 2020; the second, with a situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility but manageable by the health system in the short-medium term; the third, with a situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility with risks of maintaining the health system in the medium term; and the fourth, with a critically uncontrolled communicability situation in the health system in the short term.
Scenario 3 and measures to take
Now, in scenario 3, elaborated by Iss (Higher Institute of Health) and Cts (Technical-Scientific Committee), the regional values of Rt are between 1.25 and 1.5, as can be seen in fact from thelist published today, in which only the Basilicata has a virus transmission rate below the protection threshold of 1. These are numbers within which it is possible to limit only modestly the transmission potential of Covid with ordinary and extraordinary containment measures and “through restrictions and personal protective equipment.” According to the document, under these conditions “the growth in the number of cases could lead to a care service overload in 2-3 months“. In the event that the risk remains high / very high for three or more weeks, it is also indicated as an intervention at the national level:” Generalized restrictions with extension and duration to be defined with respect to the epidemiological scenario; in case of localized restrictions, mobility limitations to / from affected areas. “Therefore, if the high-risk situation persists, more aggressive containment measures would be necessary. The precautions currently indicated are the use of Dpi, physical distancing, individual and environmental hygiene. As for schools and universities, the lessons can be carried out in presence, with the obligation of a mask if distances cannot be maintained.
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