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PHOTOWithout strong measures, in two weeks deaths from Covid-19 could exceed 400, physicist Giorgio Parisi, from the Sapienza University of Rome, tells ANSA. “In the last 20 days the number of cases has doubled every week – he points out – and for a week the number of deaths has followed that of cases”. The number of deaths began to double, lagging 7 days from positive cases.
“What seems certain – continues Parisi – is that from the number of cases today we can trace the number of deaths in a week. For example, the number of cases yesterday corresponds to about 200 deaths between one week and the following week. double more. “Consequently, he added,” if the measures adopted a few days ago do not work, it will be difficult to avoid between 400 and 500 deaths a day. ”
Taking into account this trend in the growth of the epidemic, also discussed by Parisi in the press, a proportional increase in admissions to intensive care units is also foreseeable and thus “there would be a risk of collapse of the health system.” That is why, according to the physicist, “measures must be taken with the utmost urgency to stop the increase in the spread of the epidemic. If the measures were too strong, after 10 or 15 days they could be reduced.” This is because “the effects of any measure on deaths are seen after 15 days.”
For Parisi it is “difficult to say whether a weak or strong blockade is necessary, but decisions must be made immediately”
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