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The situation in Lombardy is difficult, the Region has asked for more restrictions to be established from 11pm onwards. The Milan ATS has raised the alarm: “We can no longer track cases. Yet in Bergamo, a sadly symbolic first wave city, things seem to be under control. “It could be the result of the many infections in the spring, but it is a hypothesis,” Matteo Bassetti told Iene.it
On March 18, in total blockade, the entire country was surprised to see how the coffins left Bergamo aboard the army trucks. The province was so hit hard by the coronavirus that it literally It was no longer known where to incinerate the bodies of those who had died with Covid-19.
Today Lombardy seems to have returned to worrying numbers: Just yesterday, the Region asked to impose new restrictive measures from 23:00 to 05:00 as of Thursday. Milan Ats raised the alarm: “We can no longer track all cases, who suspects the infection stays at home. “In short, the situation is serious. However, unexpected information emerges from the data on infections in Lombardy: Bergamo is among the provinces in the region least affected by the second wave. “Could be the result of many spring infections“Matteo Bassetti, director of the San Martino Infectious Diseases Clinic in Genoa, told Iene.it:” We are in the field of hypotheses, but it could be that the wide spread of the virus in the first wave has guaranteed a form of immunization to the population that has come into contact with the coronavirus, hindering the new circulation of the virus ”.
But let’s start with the data: today in Lombardy 2,023 new positives were registered, of which 45 in Bergamo. Only Sondrio (33), Cremona (17) and Lodi (44) registered less. As the total number of infections since the beginning of the pandemic, of course, the province of Bergamo remains the third most affected: recorded 16,568 cases, with only Milan (40,786) and Brescia (18,336) with higher figures. However, the variation registered is only 0.27% of the total, which makes it the province with the lowest increase in the entire region after Cremona (0.23%).
The pandemic now seems not to run so fast in Bergamo, and not just from yesterday’s data: looking at the evolution of infections compared to Milan, it becomes clear how the exponential growth that is affecting the capital Lombard doesn’t touch Bergamo instead. The different evolution of the pandemic curve can be seen in the graphic elaboration carried out by LabIlSole24Ore.
I know in Milan the curve grows almost vertically, the one from Bergamo has barely moved. The same situation can also be glimpsed by comparing the data with that of other Italian cities where the virus is running, such as Naples and Rome. In a short time both the capital and the capital of Campania I’ve seen its curve rise, to exceed the total number of infections in Bergamo these days: in Rome there are 19,922, in Naples 18,932, in Bergamo 16,568. At the end of the confinement, on May 4, Rome had 4,948 cases, Naples 2,473, Bergamo 11,538.
So how is such a difference between Milan and Bergamo possible, Professor Bassetti? “It may be linked to what happened in March. Obviously we are talking about hypotheses, but it is possible that there is a lower circulation of the virus linked to the fact that a large part of the population has come into contact with the coronavirus and hopefully he has developed immunity. “
According to the survey by Istat and the Ministry of Health carried out in the summer, it appears that 24% of the inhabitants of the province of Bergamo have come into contact with the coronavirus, compared to 7.5% in Lombardy and 2.5% nationally. “And the research, although it was done very well, has not been completed, so there could be even greater value in Bergamo,” explains Professor Bassetti. “We still don’t know how long immunization lasts, but we expect it to last for at least 6/9 months, and we could still be in that coverage range. This could make it more difficult for the circulating virus: however, I repeat, we are talking about hypotheses that must be studied in depth and today cannot be said with certainty”.
Some kind of herd immunity, then? “Not, Herd immunity would affect a much wider circulation than there has been.. A nice article published in recent days in The Lancet shows how herd immunity is not a tool to control the coronavirus: we cannot think of letting the virus circulate and reach 90% coverage, the hospitals would not hold. It is not a prevention tool ”
Is the situation in Lombardy really serious enough to consider a curfew? “I wouldn’t talk about a curfew, which is a word that refers to war. We are talking about more restrictions, which are in line with the latest dpcm issued by the government. The contagion proceeds irregularly in the country and also within individual regions: local restrictions seem like a good compromise”.
And in your Liguria, how is the situation going? “Here too the situation worsens, but not in a homogeneous way: in Genoa there is an epidemic group that affects some neighborhoods and that justifies the restrictions imposed in some areas of the city. In the western provinces, however, the situation is better. The situation of hospitals is difficult, but with the Liguria Region, Alisa (the Ligurian health company, ed.) and with the regional task force, we work to guarantee everyone a bed in the hospital in case of need. In San Martino we have created many beds in a few days, we prepare”.
