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The fundamental pillar of the so-called “contact tracking“is the investigation of close contacts of a positive virus: the more timely it is, the faster the chain of infections is interrupted.
In Italy the system of tracking in various regions is “jumped”. Evil.
Contact tracing is already a memory
Becomes materially impossible track transmission chains if nationally there are 10-12,000 official cases of Sars-CoV-2 infection per day. There is no system that can hold up, and today it also confirmed it Andrea Crisanti, Director of Microbiology at the University of Padua: “If the Immuni application worked perfectly and was downloaded by 90% of Italians, today with 10-12,000 cases it should send 150,000-200,000 messages a day and there is no system that can handle this. ” With the capacity that we have “between 1,500 and 2,000 cases per day we can no longer track. Once the threshold is crossed, nothing works. Lombardy had the honesty to say so.” The Region has requested a night curfew from 11 a.m. to 5 a.m., and there does not appear to be any obstacle on the part of the government. Curfew either.
With 40,000 or 50,000 infections in a week It is unthinkable to trace the contacts of those who test positive on the swab. Local health authorities lack the resources to quickly clean hundreds of thousands of people. The only solution, if the main objective is to slow down the course of the virus, are containment measures.
It is true that the problem of tracking does not concern only the north, unlike the first wave in this second wave, the virus has also made its way to the south. For example, the governor of Apulia, Michele Emiliano, had already spoken about it last Friday, then the doctors also confirmed it: “The system for tracking new cases of Covid has failed.” Can’t rebuild every chain of contagion, there are too many outbreaks around Puglia and the Asl Prevention departments, with few men available, are in big trouble.
We do our best Everywhere, also with specific recruitment and training. Too many people, however, wait days and days to be subjected to the hyssop, there are those who wait 10 days. Too many. And without a positive buffer the tracking, obviously. If the follow-up situation is out of control, the exponential growth of infections does not stop.
Trackers missing
the trackers, that’s the staff. As revealed a few days ago from Sole 24 Mineral, which cited confidential data from the Higher Institute of Health, in the Regions there are currently only 9 thousand “trackers”, who have to call, register and possibly isolate the more than 100 thousand risk contacts that arise every day. We do not use the summer months to implement RR. which will be available for follow-up. The relaunch decree last May had earmarked the money for hiring: in fact, 275 trackers were hired from June to October. Very few.
In Milan the Ats if it leases: “We are no longer able to track all infections, to actively put people in isolation – said Monday the director Vittorio Demicheli -. Anyone who suspects having had a risk contact or symptoms should stay home.” The percentage of swabs and new positives yesterday hit the 9% threshold. It should be a maximum of 5% to keep the outbreak under control.
How tracking works in theory
When a positive case is found, the The staff of the reference healthcare company takes over and makes a communication call about the instructions to follow. From here contact tracing is activated., which is the activity that identifies the highest-risk people among whom the positive subject has met in the 7 days prior to diagnosis. The research begins with the positive, which is asked a series of questions to reconstruct the subject’s medical history, thus understanding whether he or she has particular pathologies. You are asked to provide information about the 7 days prior to infection, indicating where you have been and who you have met.
Once the information is acquired, yes The partners of the positive are quarantined, given precautionary indications, and the tampon programmed in a reasonably short time. Subsequently, the investigation is extended to close contacts, that is, according to ministerial guidelines, to those who have been in contact with the positive for more than 15 minutes without a mask and without a distance of one meter in a closed place or who have had direct physical contact. Not all people who have found a positive should be considered a close contact, so the tampon prescription is also done on a case-by-case basis. Each positive develops an average of 10 to 15 close contacts.: They are quarantined for 14 days, but it is not always necessary to rub them if they are asymptomatic. According to the latest ministerial indications, isolation can last up to 10 days if a swab is performed with obviously negative results.
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In Germany, the short-term hiring of 10,000 people was announced to track infections. In Italy, on the other hand, those who believe that money thrown, for example, in banks with wheels, should have been invested to implement adequate facilities for monitoring and buffers it becomes more and more complex. The most important bank is skipped, that of monitoring. Either you totally change the settings, perhaps with rapid tests even though they are less accurate than swabs, or chasing tracing is now a pipe dream.
