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We enter one again “Acute” phase of the pandemic of coronavirus. Say it’s theHigher Institute of Health in its latest weekly report from October 5 to 11.
Territorial services under stress
Covid has experienced a strong acceleration, with a progressive increase in the number of cases, evidence of criticality in local services and increases in the occupancy rate of beds in intensive care and hospitals in general, which risk, in some regions, reaching values critics in November.
As studies on Covid progress rapidly, including that showing a link between the probability of contracting the virus and blood type, the progressive worsening of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic reported over eleven weeks is reflected in a increased work in local health services. For the first time there are very critical elements related to the spread of the virus in our country.
Therefore, the ISS explains, a rapid analysis of subregional risk is necessary for the timely increase of containment and mitigation measures in the most affected areas, based on the guidelines already provided.
The government and institutions continue to focus on the population respecting all foreseen precautionary rules, in particular physical distancing, the use of masks, hand washing, and avoiding as far as possible situations that may favor transmission such as spontaneous and programmed aggregations to avoid further deterioration that could require territorially extended restrictions.
In its report, the ISS explains that, considering the time that elapses between exposure to the virus and the development of symptoms and between these and the diagnosis and subsequent notification, probably many of the cases reported this week contracted the infection in late September. However, some of the cases identified by screening may have contracted the infection earlier in the day.
Covid in Italy: the numbers
Covid today circulates throughout the country and scientific evidence says it has many sequelae. This week a strong increase in cases was observed, raising the cumulative incidence in the last 14 days to 75 per 100,000 inhabitants (period 28 / 9-11 / 10), compared to 44.37 per 100,000 inhabitants in period 21 / 9- 4/10. In the same period, the number of symptomatic cases almost doubled, going to 15,189 symptomatic cases in the period 28 / 9-11 / 10 against 8,198 symptomatic cases in the period 21 / 9-4 / 10.
All but one region reported an increase in the number of cases diagnosed the previous week. The percentage of new cases that were detected through contact tracing activities continues to decline (28.8% of new cases compared to 31.8% the previous week). The percentage of new cases detected through detection activities also decreased (31.1% vs. 33.2%) Instead, the percentage of detected cases increases through the appearance of symptoms. (31.6% versus 29.1% last week). In 8.5% of the cases the diagnostic evaluation was not reported.
In the period from September 24 to October 7, 2020, the calculated RT in symptomatic cases is equal to 1.17. The Rt index has exceeded the threshold of 1 17 Regions: those with the highest value and risk of confinement are the Aosta Valley (1.53), which has already declared the three municipalities of Saint-Denis, Chambave and Verrayes “red zones”, followed by Piedmont (1.39) and the Autonomous Province of Bolzano (1.32). Then Abruzzo, Campania, Emilia Romagna, Liguria, Lombardy, Puglia, Sardinia, Tuscany, Umbria. Three Regions with Rt equal to 1 or below 1 are instead Basilicata (1), Calabria (0.94) and Molise (0.83).
Have been reported in general 4,913 active shoots, of which 1,749 new (remember that by outbreak we understand the presence of 2 or more positive cases connected to each other), both increasing for the eleventh consecutive week. In the previous week of follow-up, 3,805 active outbreaks had been reported, of which 1,181 were new.
Outbreaks have been reported in almost all Italian provinces, 102 out of 107. Most of these outbreaks continue to occur at home, to be exact in 80.3% of cases. On the other hand, the percentage of outbreaks detected in the context of recreational activities remained stable, equal to 4.2%, compared to 4.1% the previous week.
Where the contagion occurs most
This week outbreaks where transmission could have occurred in the school setting are increasing, but intra-school transmission remains generally a dynamic of limited transmission: 3.8% of all new outbreaks in which the transmission context was reported.
However, the ISS still specifies, the extracurricular activities they can be a trigger for transmission chains where the foreseen prevention measures are not respected.
We observe a sharp increase in the number of new cases outside known chains of transmission. This week, the Regions reported 9,291 cases where no epidemiological link was found, which includes 33% of all cases reported in the week.
At the national level, a significant increase in the number of people hospitalized (4,519 versus 3,287 in the medical area, 420 versus 303 in intensive care on 10/11 and 4/10, respectively) and, consequently, the occupancy rates of hospitalizations in the medical area and in intensive care increased, with some Regions up 10% in both areas.
An exceptional workload is repeatedly reported that in many cases compromises the timely management of contacts, in addition to not ensuring activities not related to this emergency.
That is why the strengthening of local services, through the extraordinary participation of professional support resources and also through the use of technological tools, such as the Immuni app, in the diagnostic activities and search for contacts, in order to identify early all transmission chains and ensure efficient management, including the quarantine of close contacts and the immediate isolation of secondary cases.
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