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The independent monitoring of the GIMBE Foundation detects in the week 7-13 of October, compared to the previous one, an exponential increase in the trend of new cases (35,204 vs 17,252) compared to a moderate increase in the cases tested (505,940 vs 429,984) and a net increase in the positive ratio / cases analyzed (7% vs 4%). From the epidemiological point of view, positive cases are currently increasing (87,193 vs 60,134) and, in the hospital setting, a rebound in hospitalized patients with symptoms (5,076 vs 3,625) and in intensive care (514 vs 319). Constant growth also on the death front (216 vs 155).
In detail, compared to the previous week, the following changes were recorded:
- Deaths: +61 (+ 39.4%)
- Intensive care: +195 (+ 61.1%)
- Hospitalized with symptoms: +1,451 (+ 40%)
- New cases: +35,204 (+ 104.1%)
- Currently positive cases: +27,059 (+ 45%)
- Tested cases +75,956 (+ 17.7%)
- Total buffers: +102,881 (+ 14.4%)
“In the last week – says Nino Cartabellotta, president of the GIMBE Foundation – there is a doubling of new cases, confirming an exponential increase which is also reflected in the curve of hospitalized patients with symptoms and in intensive care. Also, with the sharp increase in cases, both regional and provincial variability becomes much more evident. For this reason, GIMBE monitoring is enriched with a summary of the main indicators to understand the dynamics and numbers of the epidemic in the different Regions.
New cases. There were 35,204 new cases, more than double the previous week (Figure 1). At the national level, the percentage increase in total cases is 10.7%, with regional variations ranging from 4% in the autonomous province of Trento to 30.9% in Umbria.
Proven cases. Even in terms of testing and tracing capacity, regional results are highly variable: against a national average of 838 cases tested per 100,000 inhabitants, the number varies from 523 in Marche to 1,276 in Tuscany.
The increase in the ratio of positives / cases analyzed goes from 4% to 7%, which confirms that the virus circulates in an increasingly sustained manner. The value of more than 6% in almost all the Regions demonstrates an overload in the tracking and isolation of outbreaks and requires an urgent strengthening of the territorial services responsible for testing and tracking activities. Compared to a national average of 7%, the range varies from 2% in Calabria to 16.4% in Valle D’Aosta.
Currently positive cases. The increase in infections has caused a wild expansion of the currently positive cases that have reached the number of 87,193. As of October 13, compared to a national average of 144 currently positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the range varies from 41 in Calabria to 205 in Valle D’Aosta.
Hospitalization and intensive care. Also in terms of hospitalizations, the curve for both hospitalizations and intensive care is skyrocketing, increasing by 1,451 (+ 40%) and 195 units (+ 61.1%) respectively. The global percentage of hospitalized patients out of the total positive cases currently, compared to a national average of 6.4%, ranges from 2.6% in Friuli-Venezia Giulia to 10.2% in Liguria.
Deceased. In the last month there has been a slow but steady increase in the number of deceased patients: from 70 to 216 per week.
“With the vertiginous increase in the figures – Cartabellotta explains – the national figure does not take into account the marked regional and provincial differences that require more restrictive measures to quickly limit all outbreaks and stop the widespread contagion.”
For example, in the week of October 7 to 13, the incidence of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to a national average of 58.3, is higher than 100 in two regions: Valle d’Aosta (141.6) and Liguria (113, 1) – and in 6 provinces: Belluno (181.3), Genoa (144.7), Arezzo (129), Pisa (125.3), Prato (125.3), Naples (110.3 ).
«The effects of the measures of the new DPCM – Cartabellotta concludes – in addition to not being able to be evaluated before 3 weeks, will be partially neutralized by the exponential increase in infections and by the additional burden of health services due to the flu season . Here because the GIMBE Foundation appeals to a sense of responsibility and maximum collaboration between the Presidents of the Regions and local administratorsI mayors in primis– Intervene quickly with local restrictive measures, including selective closures, to extinguish outbreaks, stop widespread contagion, and prevent hospital overload. Otherwise, continuing the trends of the last weeks, according to the scenarios foreseen by the new circular of the Ministry of Health, the risk of broader restrictions (including the blockade) is just around the corner ».
GIMBE’s monitoring of the COVID-19 outbreak is available at: https://coronavirus.gimbe.org
