Who wants a Christmas confinement in Italy (and how much would it cost)

Was the first out yesterday Andrea Crisanti, professor of immunology to Padua: “I think a I lock up Natale both in the order of things: it could reboot the system, reduce virus transmission, and increase contact tracing. As we are, the system is saturated ”. The virologist followed him immediately after but with greater caution. Fabrizio Pregliasco: the risk “there is, but if we take measures I think we could live with the presence of the virus. It is necessary to find as many positives as possible, especially asymptomatic; the more we control them, the less they infect”. However, the confinements are recommended by experts and decided by politics (which often tries to shift the responsibility to the former).

Who wants a Christmas running (and how much would it cost)

And there is a wing of the government that wants closure. While the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who until yesterday tended to exclude him with very reassuring statements, said for the first time that he does not want to make predictions and threw the ball to the Regions field, to which he left the responsibility of deciding it in the territories (and yesterday it was the turn of Arzano in the province of Naples). The truth is that the prime minister knows that if the first national blockade has skyrocketed his popularity, a second would be unsustainable for the country’s economy and would put his leadership at risk this time.

But in the government the sensitivities are different, and the departure of the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza to Che tempo che fa to prohibit private parties, later disallowed by the Dpcm, which only recommended the famous six-person rule, is an indicator of a division in absolute. internal executive. And only Speranza (Leu), write today Daily fact, “together with the Minister of Cultural Heritage and Tourism, Dario Franceschini (Pd), represents the most intransigent wing of the government and is ready for tougher restrictions such as Macron’s curfew in France, perhaps next week.”

Conte tries to mediate between this position and that of the more “open-minded at any price”, such as the ministers Teresa Bellanova (Renziana) and Paola De Micheli (Pd), in the “conviction – sources close to Palazzo Chigi explain – that a new Generalized closure would be a collapse for the country now that, on the contrary, there are important signs of recovery. ”And on this point I also agree with the Ministry of Health:” The car has just started again, stopping it would be disastrous. “

Conte, however, does not exclude local closures for provinces and cities, as Governor Nicola Zingaretti did in Lazio, or even regional ones: “The scheme is very clear – Conte announces -: we will continue to update with the Regions. The winning formula is collaborate, collaborate, collaborate. For the regions we have made it possible for the presidents to introduce restrictive measures as soon as the need arises, while for those of relaxation we need an agreement with the Minister of Health ”. And again: “It is clear that much will depend on the behavior of the citizens.”

Therefore, a blockade at Christmas should find a government in full agreement and, to date, the hypothesis does not seem so close. But the figures from the Civil Protection bulletin say that infections are at a record level and the alarm sounds very loud in that Lombardy that was the epicenter of the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic at the beginning of the year: 1800 cases in one. day, because, as scrove again The factbecause the outbreak detection and positive contact tracing system is jumping. “Since September – a contact tracing employee of the Milan ATS tells the newspaper under anonymity – we have more than 2,500 pending investigation cases, resulting from infections that occurred in the summer. Each case is different, but if a positive is a person who plays football and goes to university, then rebuilding his network of contacts becomes a treasure hunt … And with our strength reduced, here we are only 7 employees, we are losing control ”. And the fact that yesterday’s new infections are in 65% of cases between the ages of 18 and 49 certainly doesn’t help.

How much does a confinement cost us at Christmas?

the Corriere della Sera He says that, in the meantime, the government’s enigma is whether it is not necessary to review the newly signed Dpcm in the race, if not, to tighten the rules on meetings by stopping clubs, restaurants and social and cultural activities, also in light curfew at 9 pm taken in Paris.

“I was worried from the beginning, much less if not now”, is the encouragement of the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza. In this climate, Conte received yesterday the letter with which Riccardo Nencini, president of the Senate Committee on Culture, urges the government to compensate for the accumulated logistical delay in transport: “It will be a dramatic November, the CTS says that trains and buses outbursts are possible. ” “.

Then there is the economy side, and here is little to discuss: the blockade at Christmas is a nightmare for the 4.1 billion tourism just because of the lost expenses of the more than 10 million Italians who last year left. vacation during the holidays. This is what emerges from an analysis by Coldiretti / Ixe in reference to the alarm launched by Crisanti about the development of the pandemic in Italy in the coming months. A severe blow to the economic system, which has already been harshly tested by a summer that – Coldirett points out – left a hole of 23,000 million in the national tourist accounts due to the decrease in Italian presence and the practically total absence of foreigners.

According to Coldiretti’s analysis, structures dedicated to accommodation, food, transportation, entertainment, shopping, and souvenirs pay the highest price. In addition, it is estimated – says Coldiretti – that 1/3 of the tourist expenditure of Italians and foreigners in Italy goes to food. At stake is a Made in Italy tourism system consisting of 612 thousand companies and represents – concludes Coldiretti – 10.1% of the national production system, surpassing the manufacturing sector, with 2.7 million workers, in 12.6% of the national employment according to Unioncamere.

Positives, hospitalizations and intensive care: how we approach a new confinement