[ad_1]
The dreaded second wave has finally arrived: the rebound in infections, the growth of hospitalized patients and the slow but constant increase in deaths, certify that the inversion of the curve that began ten weeks ago is already consolidated.
In our weekly follow-up, we observed a clear increase in the trend of new cases compared to the previous week, from 16,225 to 31,984 (+ 97%) compared to a slightly higher number of cases analyzed (+ 10%).
Deaths have increased from 151 to 203 (+ 34%) in the last seven days. In the hospital environment, there is an exponential growth of hospitalized patients with symptoms, now 4,821 (+1334, + 38%), and of people who need assistance in intensive care, which have become 452 and grow almost 40% in a single week. (+129)
If we take as a reference the data from July 29, where there was the minimum number of patients in the ICU (38), we see that the figure has more than ten.
Always between the end of July and the beginning of August, in Italy there were a few hundred new cases a day, now we are around 5,000.
It is a ruthless data, due in part to the greater number of swabs made (tripled), but if we also analyze the positive-swab ratio that went from 0.8% to 5.4%, we note that on the one hand we are looking more for the virus but on the other hand, the number of positives has more than quintupled.
It should be noted that some Regions are above the national average: they are Liguria (11.5%), Sardinia (8.16%), Valle d’Aosta (7.5%), Campania (6.85%), Lombardy ( 6.61%), Sicily 6.58%), Piedmont (6.31%), Friuli VG (5.72%).
Hospitalized patients with symptoms increased from 3,487 to 4,821; a figure that for the moment does not suggest overloads of national hospital services, but that relevant regional differences are beginning to emerge.
In particular, no less than 8 Regions register hospitalization rates per 100,000 inhabitants above the national average: Sicily (11.5%), Lazio (13.9), Liguria (13), Campania (9.2), Puglia (8.9%)%), Sardinia (8.8), Piedmont and Basilicata (7.9%). In almost all regions, the Rt index is greater than 1, thus exceeding the alarm threshold.
Currently, a total of approximately 4,000 active outbreaks have been reported (just over 3,000 had been reported in the previous follow-up week). Most of these outbreaks continue to occur at home (77.6%). The percentage of outbreaks detected in recreational activities continues to decrease (4.1% vs 4.5% the previous week).
In Bergamo and Lombardy
Our region has been exceeding the threshold of a thousand positives per day for a few days, with which the positive / swab ratio is between 6 and 7% (the percentage drops as usual on weekends and then rises again) and the total to 113,934. The deaths are in total 16988 and 83353 cured / discharged. 50 patients in intensive care (there were 30 fifteen days ago). Still under control, however, the Bergamo curve: although it has risen slightly in the last period examined, it does not reach the levels of other Lombard provinces (in particular Milan, Monza and Brescia). In total there are 16,147 positives, of which 236 in the last week.
The new Dpcm
Meanwhile, the new Dpcm has been signed that contains the new restrictive measures to contain the coronavirus epidemic that will be in force for the next thirty days. The measures are already known, but we summarize them because they are still relevant.
More expensive
Article 1 of the Dpcm establishes that “it is mandatory throughout the national territory to always carry respiratory protection devices, as well as the obligation to carry them in interior places other than private homes and in all places outdoors except in cases in which, due to the characteristics of the places or the factual circumstances, the condition of isolation of people who do not live together is permanently guaranteed, and in any case with the protection of the anti-contagion protocols and guidelines provided for the activities. economic, productive, administrative and social, as well as guidelines for the consumption of food and beverages ”. Those who engage in sports activities, those under 6 years of age, people with pathologies and disabilities incompatible with the use of a mask are excluded from the obligation. The use of devices is also “strongly recommended” “even inside private homes in the presence of people who do not live together.”
Holidays
The novelty, compared to the previous Dpcm, is that parties are prohibited in all indoor and outdoor places. Even in private homes “in any case it is strongly recommended to avoid parties and to receive, for parties, dinners or other occasions, more than 6 people who do not live together.” The closure of dance halls and discotheques, outdoors or indoors, has been confirmed, while fairs and conferences are allowed.
Weddings and ceremonies
Civil or religious ceremonies such as weddings are still allowed, with the rules established by the protocols already in force. Instead, the parties that follow the ceremonies can take place with a maximum participation of 30 people in accordance with the protocols and guidelines in force.
School trips
The Dpcm also intervenes in student trips: educational trips, exchange or twinning initiatives, guided visits and educational outings programmed by school institutions of all levels are suspended in the decree, without prejudice to activities related to the roads. for transversal skills and orientation, as well as practical activities.
Cinema and concerts
The limit of 200 participants indoors and 1000 outdoors for the shows is maintained, with the restriction of one meter between one place and another and the allocation of seats. Events involving gatherings are suspended if distance cannot be maintained. The autonomous regions and provinces can establish, in agreement with the Minister of Health, a different maximum number of spectators depending on the size and characteristics of the seats. In any case, the ordinances already adopted by the autonomous regions and provinces are reserved.
Stadiums
For sports competitions, the presence of the public is allowed, “with a maximum filling percentage of 15% of the total capacity and in no case exceeding the maximum number of 1000 spectators outdoors and 200 indoors.” The distance of one meter and the measurement of fever at the entrance must be guaranteed. The autonomous regions and provinces, in relation to the progress of the epidemiological situation in their territories, may establish, in agreement with the Minister of Health, a different maximum number of spectators depending on the size and characteristics of the places and facilities; With reference to the maximum number of spectators for events and non-outdoor sports competitions, the ordinances already adopted by the autonomous regions and provinces are subject in any case.
Sport
All competitions, competitions and all activities related to contact sports of an amateur nature are prohibited. Contact sports are allowed “by professional clubs at both competitive and grassroots level, by amateur associations and clubs recognized by the Italian National Olympic Committee (CONI), by the Italian Paralympic Committee (CIP), in accordance with the protocols issued by the respective national sports federations, associated sports disciplines and sports promotion bodies, suitable to prevent or reduce the risk of contagion in the reference sector or in related sectors ”.
Restaurants and bars
They will have to close at midnight but after 9:00 p.m. it will be forbidden to consume standing up, so only those places that have an indoor or outdoor table can continue serving customers.
Another point is the extension of the state of exception until January 31, 2021, object of the decree-law to which the Dpcm itself is articulated.
Europe and the rest of the world
The second wave of coronavirus hitting the entire planet looks more and more like a tsunami. Every day, each new record of infections is torn apart by the following data: a few hours after having exceeded the threshold of 37 million cases in the world, there are already more than 37 million and 500 thousand. An acceleration that represented a growth of 7.5% in just 14 days.
In relation to population, South America is always the most affected continent, while Europe has overtaken North America. Instead, 1,077,000 are the dead, an increase of 80,000 in just two weeks. Therefore, the state of health in Europe is worrying, where the spread of Covid 19 is galloping at a rate of more than 120,000 cases per day.
Along with Spain and France, the European countries most affected by the pandemic at the moment, the United Kingdom is also on alert: “We are at a point of no return”, warns Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England’s Deputy Director of Health. , providing an exponential increase in infections. Hospitals already have more coronavirus patients than they did in March, and if it continues at this rate, the situation could become unmanageable. All European countries have introduced new restrictive measures and some local closures.
“10% of the world’s population may have been infected with the virus.” This was said by Michael Ryan, WHO chief of emergencies, during a meeting of the executive council, dedicated to the health emergency that has brought the whole world to its knees. There is even talk of 760 million infected out of the 7.6 billion people worldwide. “A difficult period begins, the disease continues to spread, the majority of the population is still at risk,” concluded Ryan.
These are estimates that photograph a very contagious virus, which does not spare anyone, just look at the data for the United States, 7,800,000 of total infections, India (7,100,000) and Brazil (5,100,000).
[ad_2]
