[ad_1]
The IMF improves Italy’s estimates for 2020, but cuts those for 2021. The economy is expected to contract 10.6% this year, 2.2 percentage points higher than the forecast of -12.8% in June. GDP is expected to grow 5.2% next year, or 1.1 percentage points less than June estimates. The Nadef government expects -9% this year and + 6% next.
Italian public debt is expected to increase to 161.8% in 2020 of GDP of 134.8% in 2019, before falling to 158.3% in 2021 and 152.6% in 2025, the IMF also expects a deficit of 13% this year and 6.2% next (at 2 , 5% in 2025). Sharp jump in the deficit also for France: it will rise to 10.8% of GDP this year with a debt of 118.7%.
Unemployed persons also increase in Italy. The Fund estimates an unemployment rate for Italy at 11.0% in 2020, up from 9.9% in 2019. Next year, the unemployment rate will rise further to 11.8%. The Italian rate is above the European average of 8.9% this year and 9.1% next. In the euro area, Spain is worse than Italy, with 16.8% in both 2020 and 2021, and Greece, with 19.9% this year and 18.3% next.
Compared to pre-pandemic forecasts, global production losses from coronavirus will increase from $ 11 trillion in 2020-2021 to $ 28 trillion in 2020-2025. says Gita Gopinath, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, emphasizing that “this is the worst crisis since the Great Depression” and will probably leave “scars” in the medium term, as the labor market takes time to recover and investments are held back for the uncertainty. The $ 12 trillion global fiscal stimulus and central bank actions “saved lives and averted financial catastrophe”
The Fund expects a “shallower recession” in 2020: World GDP will fall 4.4% this year, less than the -5.2% estimated in June. In 2021, however, the recovery will be slightly slower than expected, with a growth forecast of + 5.2%, or 0.2 percentage points less than the June estimates. The “economy is coming back”, it is “emerging from the depths to which it sank in April” but the recovery will be long, uncertain “and” ready for relapses. ”
[ad_2]
