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And now the attack ofthe virus in Milan. There are at least on the expert table three indicators raise your guard. First, there is the Rt index that measures the spread of infections (how many people infects an infected person): the latest data from the Ats, the Health Protection Agency that has the task of health surveillance, gives it to 1.48. the alert threshold (1.5) established by the Ministry of Health (in the Ats count, however, asymptomatic patients are also taken into account, unlike what happens in the regional statistics that, in line with ministerial indications, evaluate only symptomatic and therefore, they give a lower Rt). Then there is the number of new cases.
Peaks
Beyond the gods daily newsletters, which yesterday gave 363 positives, 184 of which in Milan, experts analyze the trend from one week to another. The estimate of 3,200 new infections in the provinces of Milan and Lodi between October 11 and 18. If the predictions turn out to be correct, it means that the weekly number of positive swabs is back to the same as in mid-March. And, with 1,900 in the city, the figure is even worse. the peak differences However, the epidemic remains notable both for the number of people tested (7,000 a day today, compared to 2,000 last spring) and for the impact on hospitalizations (still limited for now). But there is the third factor, perhaps the most worrying: the evolution of the curve, constantly rising. It is enough to consider that in the week of October 4 to 10, the cases doubled compared to the previous one (2,086 against 966). Ats CEO Walter Bergamaschi sums up:maximum attention because the curve is going up fast and we are far from the peak. During the first wave of the (damn) Covid-19, the capital of Lombardy managed not to be overwhelmed like Bergamo and Brescia: the overnight blockade between March 8 and 9 contained the spread of the epidemic in the metropolis from three million population. Now, what must be done to contain the spread of the virus?
The reasons for the increase
Data on the age of the newly infected say that from September 6 to October 8 were positive: 222 children from 0 to 9 years old, 315 between 9 and 19, 576 between 20 and 29, 566 between 30 and 39, 543 between 40 and 49, and then go down to more than 50 years. Ultimately, the most affected are children and their parents, along with young people. The effect of schools reopening, the resumption of work activities and nightlife – says Bergamaschi -. To avoid further blockages, you must really learn to live with the virus by reducing non-essential activities.
Countermeasures
In a’email reserved by the director of the Department of Health, Marco Trivelli, the technicians of CTS Lombard, who will meet today at 3:00 p.m., are asked to evaluate whether more restrictive restrictions in Milan. The document puts forward two hypotheses: the closing time of the bar early at 6 pm as in March and Reduction of the load on public transport by using distance learning in upper secondary schools and smart work in all applicable contexts. It is a series of proposals – Trivelli wants to underline -, not decisions already taken. However, the two hypotheses give an idea of how high the alert is. The Lombardy region cannot, and should not, be caught off guard. Hence the need to better evaluate the restrictive measures to be taken.
Family doctors
Family doctors are also called to play a fundamental role. Examining system data Ats surveillance in people over 70 under risk conditions -explains Bergamaschi- it is clear that the 48,624 treated in the best general practitioner care have a 70% lower risk of death compared to the 79,110 who were not followed. Hence a renewed appeal to follow the most fragile patients, even with simple phone calls and monitoring their health.
The role of citizens
In the coming days, the ATS will ask citizens to become more involved in locating contacts at risk. We double the number daily consultations to identify who should be isolated (from 100 to 200) and triple dedicated employees (from 50 to 140). But given the increase in cases, we still run the risk of not achieving it – admits Bergamaschi -. why we will ask stakeholders fill in the forms provided that can speed up our follow-up operations. Right now, each of us must ask ourselves what we can do and what responsibilities we must assume to overcome the virus.
October 13, 2020 | 07:27
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