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A dossier to prepare for the worst that has been prepared by the Scientific Technical Committee. Inside there are three scenarios for the spread of the coronavirus for each of which the measures to be taken to deal with the situation are indicated. The first under consideration is the current one and is called the “yellow scenario”. Here, as Il Messaggero reveals, transmissibility is sustained and generalized throughout the national territory, but manageable by the health system in the short-medium term: the Rt transmissibility index is between 1 and 1.25. In this case, the Cts recommends social distancing, the establishment of local red zones and the drive toward smart work.
Then it is the turn of the “orange” scenario in which some higher risk regions such as Lombardy, Campania, Basilicata could fall. The transmissibility is sustained and generalized with risks of the health system in the medium term: Rt between 1.25 and 1.5. For this they are recommended “extended extraordinary interventions, with temporary closures (2-3 weeks) in Municipalities and Provinces ”. Not only that, because a worsening of social distancing and the interruption of social, cultural and sports activities with a higher risk of overcrowding must also be promoted.
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Finally, the most worrisome of the scenarios: “red”. In this situation, the virus is now spreading in an uncontrolled way (Rt index greater than 1.5), with criticalities for the health system in the short term. The first step to face the emergency would be the “restrictions” of movement between Regions and / or Provinces and the confinement would become general as it happened in the previous months.
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