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“We have to endure a year, a year and a half at the most. Perhaps even less if effective drugs or a vaccine arrive. ‘ The scenario described by Paolo Bonanni, an epidemiologist and Senior Lecturer in Hygiene at the University of Florence, is serious but (yet) not dramatic.
“Let’s not waste everything we’ve done so far, we still have time.” After 8 months from the official entry of the virus in Italy, an unprecedented lockdown (or successors, for now), a summer of almost absolute freedom, we are facing the return of fear. More than 5 thousand new infections per day (5456 Sunday, October 11, latest data available in the publication of this article), but impact on hospitals remains limited: compared to 79 thousand current positives, there are just over 4,500 hospitalized and 420 in intensive care. “We cannot forget that, if the situation in Italy is better than in other countries, the credit must be attributed to a confinement that was , as we know, early, total and severe. At the moment we are far from the situation of March and April but there is a risk of a worsening “.
Describe what you see today.
«I see the need for protect public health in contrast to the needs of the economy and also to the psychological needs of people. It is understandable that we would like to have an active social life, find friends, but this can only be done by respecting the rules.
Which?
“They are the usual: distance, mask when near people outside the family, frequent hand washing and disinfection. This is especially true for clubs and nightlife, which rightly ended up under the lens of the government. Those in charge of the clubs should be the ones who enforce the rules, in the interest of all: today we cannot afford to drink a beer half a meter from our friends, without a mask.
In addition to nightlife, could reopening schools also play a role in rising infections?
“Yes, you can certainly make a contribution, but the children and young people are proving very good at respecting the rules. The same cannot be said of the few who do not wear the mask (or wear it without covering their nose) and thus put the entire community at risk.
Is the situation in Italy worrisome?
“Not yet, but he risks converting. The question is be able to keep the infection increase curve linear: If this happens we can manage with limited measures (such as early closure of the premises) but, I repeat, individual behavior will be essential. If the increase in infections becomes exponential, going from 5,000 to 8-12,000 per day in a few days, then it will be reasonable to think about the closure of some regions or areas of the country that run the risk of returning to the situation in March ” .
Did you expect this rapid increase in cases?
“I expected growth to be slower and that we could get to the end of November without further measures. The numbers took us a bit by surprise, but in reality everything that is happening is absolutely normal. The worst pandemics have always had 2 or 3 waves: In the case of the Spagnola, for example, the second was much worse than the first. That is why I say that we have to endure a year or so: after this time, if we are vigilant and responsible, the problem will go away by itself because the virus will learn to live with man ».
What did you think when the new positives went from 1,000 to 5,000 per day?
“These numbers, in an absolute sense, don’t have much meaning. We cannot compare today’s infections with April, when one-tenth of today’s swabs were taken.. I repeat: if individual responsibility prevails in these months, we can stop the race of the virus without resorting to drastic measures.
October 11, 2020 (change October 11, 2020 | 17:21)
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