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It is not yet the Bible with the rules with which to try to fight the epidemic: first, probably between today and tomorrow, the green light of the State-Regions Conference must arrive. But Scientific technical committee (Cts) has prepared a document, a kind of “toolbox”, with three scenarios for the spread of the virus, for each of which the measures to be taken to adequately deal with the virus are indicated. COVID-19-19. And the Minister of Health will talk about this with the CTS today, Roberto Speranza, in an “urgent” meeting to assess the increase in infections. And set the rules for the emergency shutdown municipal and provincial.
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THE FIRST SCENARIO
It is the current one and is called the “yellow stage”. The transmissibility of the virus is sustained and generalized throughout the national territory, but it can be managed by the health system in the short-medium term: the Rt transmissibility index is between 1 and 1.25. The objective is the containment and repression of epidemic outbreaks and the CTS suggests the strengthening of social distancing, the establishment of local red zones, the impulse towards smart work to reduce the risk of contagion in offices and limit overcrowding in public transport . At this stage, “the interruption of higher risk social, cultural and sports activities”, such as discotheques (already closed), gyms and bars, even if only for hours, is also expected at this stage. For example, early closing at 11pm. The CTS for this scenario also introduces the possibility of limiting population mobility “in subregional geographic areas.” That is, Municipalities and Provinces, as could happen in Naples or Milan where infections are at alarming levels. For the school it is suggested that the lessons are staggered in rotation between morning and afternoon, distance education in secondary schools, temporary closure of schools and universities due to the number of suspected cases. The suspension of “some courses that present high-risk conditions”, such as gymnastics, is also foreseen.
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THE SECOND SCENARIO
This is the “orange” scenario in which some Regions such as Lombardy, Campania, Basilicata could fall. The transmissibility is sustained and generalized with risks of the health system in the medium term: Rt between 1.25 and 1.5. The goal: “Mitigation of the spread of the virus.” In this case, the CTS recommends “prolonged extraordinary interventions, with temporary closures (2-3 weeks) in Municipalities and Provinces.” Suggested measures range from an exacerbation of social distancing, to the interruption of social, cultural and sports activities with a higher risk of overcrowding. Forbidden borders and “restricted” mobility between Regions and within Regions. The interruption of some productive activities “with risk situations” is not excluded. For the school sector, the measures are similar, although stricter, to those envisaged for the yellow scenario.
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THE THIRD SCENARIO
It is the most serious and is “red”. What the government would never want to face: the virus is now spreading uncontrollably (Rt index greater than 1.5), with critical problems for the health system in the short term. In short, hospitals and especially intensive care are on the brink of collapse. In this case, the CTS aims to “mitigate the spread of the virus by ending widespread community transmission.” The first step would be the “restrictions” on movement between Regions and / or Provinces. The confinement would be generalized, between March and the beginning of May. For schools, the CTS, in this scenario, proposes the closure of schools and universities with distance education “when possible”.
Speranza will speak with CTS experts today about this, but also about the rapid tests that general practitioners and pediatricians must perform to avoid the collapse of drive-ins and hospitals. The seal of the contact tracing system, essential to identify and track who has been in contact with who has tested positive for the virus, will also be evaluated.
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