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Rome, October 10, 2020 – More controls, selective closures or lockdowns. A few days ago, a dossier signed by experts from the Ministry of Health arrived at the table of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. The technicians have outlined an action plan with three scenarios to follow depending on the evolution of the contagion by coronavirus (here the newsletter of October 10). The severity of the countermeasures to take will depend on the famous Rt index, that is the number that indicates how many other people an infected individual can infect. The higher this figure, the stricter the anti-Covid regulations will be. The stated goal the government is to avoid a lockout at all costs like March, which has brought the country’s economy to its knees. A goal that can only be achieved if Sars-Cov-2 has a limited extension. Today at 4 in the afternoon, the premier met with the heads of delegation, while tomorrow there will be an urgent meeting of the Scientific Technical Committee, in which the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza must also participate. Government and Regions before October 15, when the new Dpcm sees the light, will have to choose which way to go. Let’s try to understand what could happen, depending on the action plan that the government adopts. We recall that since the last follow-up of the ISS, the Rt index calculated on symptomatic cases (period 17-30 September) was equal to 1.06 at the national level.
Yellow alert
With an index Regional Rt between 1 and 1.25 (reflecting the current situation) extraordinary interventions will be carried out only in limited geographic areas. They will study measures to strengthen social distancing and there will be red areas only locally. The closure of social, cultural and sports activities (including discos, bars and gyms) will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis and could also be carried out by time slots. It is possible that the Government will adopt measures such as a curfew for the premises from 24 o’clock, the prohibition of the sale of alcohol after a certain hour, parking outside the limits outside them. As well as restrictions for public events and private parties, including weddings and christenings, until funeral. Companies will be asked to favor it smart work to reduce crowding of public transport and workplaces. It can be considered a temporary stop of mobility in small areas. As for schools, it will be possible to request the use of masks even when students are sitting at the desk. The directive will come to favor distance lessons and the staggering of those present.
Orange alert
With an index Regional Rt between 1.25 and 1.5 the extraordinary interventions they will be more numerous. Social distancing will be enforced through strict controls. In the red zones, a temporary closure will be activated, the duration of which will be evaluated according to the Rt index. All social, cultural and sports activities with a higher risk of reunion will be interrupted. They go Mobility restrictions to and from areas where the virus circulates the most. The interruption of productive activities that present risk situations will be evaluated case by case. Interregional mobility could be prohibited. As for the school, the principals will have the possibility to force their students to always wear masks. The face-to-face lessons will take place in several shifts. The temporary closure of the institutions may be evaluated.
Red alert
See the index Regional Rt should exceed 1.5 the government will be forced to follow the path of large-scale lockdown. The resilience of the health system, in this scenario, is considered at risk in the short term. The imperative, if we find ourselves in this situation, will be avoid collapse. All schools and universities will be closed and production activities deemed non-essential may be stopped. It would be a replica, in effect, of the first confinement.
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