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Watch the health authorities they will not be able to continue track cases, there will be one exponential diffusion of infections. “If this happens, the virus will spread somehow out of control“. The chancellor Angela Merkel has made its fears public, openly asking countries Germans to take restrictive measures more rigid. Germany could lose control of Covid: to avoid it Merkel has even prepared the use of armed forces. The reason, writes the newspaper. Southgerman’s newspaper, is that the German anti-Covid strategy – like Italian – is essentially based on three pillars: swabs, quarantine and infection tracing. However, if the number of new cases per day grows exponentially, you lose the control of the spread of the virus because it is no longer possible contact tracking. The German strategy however, compared to the Italian, “it allows the management of the epidemic softer“. Holds it Walter Ricciardi, member of the executive committee ofwho and consultant of Health Minister, who advanced his proposal: “Quarantine in our opinion can be reduced to 10 days how is it done in Germany, with a tampon instead of two pads. “But how exactly does it work? First, the Germans distinguish between quarantine by positive suspicion and isolation of a positive checked. In the first case, the person must stay at home 14 days. If, on the other hand, after a swab, positivity is checked, the isolation for 10 days. The end of the quarantine for an infected German can also occur, in theory without a negative test a Covid: according to the guidelines of Robert Koch Institute (Rki), in fact, the control panel is mandatory only for those who have had severe symptoms. German laboratories in the last 7 weeks have performed more than 150 thousand tests a day out of a population of 83 million inhabitants. The report mattress per inhabitant is Similary to Italian. In Germany, however, according to the guidelines, many are made fewer control tests compared to Italy, where a double negative buffer to be considered out of harm’s way. Therefore, most tampons work identify new cases.
Already at the end of September, speaking during a party summit behind closed doors, the chancellor Merkel He had warned that in the Christmas period he will have 19,200 almost per day. Public opinion had described it as a catastrophic prediction, but now in Germany the whole world, starting with the media, is already changing my mind. The German government’s concern arose not only from Merkel’s prophecy, but also from the Health Minister’s words. Jens spahn and the director of the Robert Koch Institute, Lothar wieler: “The virus may be spreading uncontrollably“. An identical warning to the one issued here in Italy by Professor Andrea Crisanti, Professor of Microbiology in Padua, in the pages of Daily occurrence: “If the numbers go up we lose control, jump tracking. ” Italy the new daily case curve recorded on Friday third peak consecutive (5372 positives). In Berlin they are no less concerned: they are 4,516 i contagion confirmed in the country the same day. Also on Thursday they were infected 4,058. Many cities have reached the critical alert level of 50 new infections every 100 thousand inhabitants. In Germany, the rate of positive swabs exceeded1.6% and in the last four weeks the number of Covid patients admitted to intensive care has already doubled: they are currently about 500. One sign, always explains the Southgerman’s newspaper, that the pandemic has started to run faster than before and it is likely that break the banks of the German strategy. Germany still has an advantage: as of October 9 there are more than 21 thousand Beds of intensive care. Of these, the majority are occupied (not by Covid patients), but still remain 8,519 still available second de.statista.com. The other strength of the German system, however, is the participation of general practitioners who, again based on the guidelines developed by the Rki, must follow the quarantine of a suspected and positive case step by step, deciding whether and when to perform a swab.
Only from this point can we understand the isolation management in Germany that Ricciardi refers to. The latest explanatory document was published by Rki on September 24 and explains precisely the difference between quarantine for positive suspicion and the isolation of an established Covid case. A quarantine is always necessary if you had a Contact with a infected person or after returning from a risk zone and it can last up to 14 days. During quarantine, the primary care physician monitors any development of symptoms and can decide whether and when to do a swab. If the test is positive, the isolation of 10 days. This duration, explains the Rki, is calculated on the “infectious period“, Which begins after the period incubation. That is why it is shorter. Past i 10 days, the general practitioner is always a to decide how to proceed. According to the guidelines, a negative swab is needed obligatorily consider a person who has healed severe symptoms. In the case of mild symptoms, however, it is sufficient that after at least ten days pass 48 ore without the manifestation of symptoms. The basic concept, explains the Ministry of Health, is that “isolation can be disrupted only if the patient is sure can no longer infect other people. ”However, to arrive at this certainty, we focused more on symptomatology That in control swabs.
the contact tracking instead, it is carried out according to criteria similar to those present in Italy. If there is a suspicion of infection, family members, partners and co-workers should not go immediately to quarantine, unless the Health Department. If confirmation of positivity comes through a swab, then quarantine is ordered for those who have had a strict contract. “It means that you have talked to this person for at least 15 minutes or who has had direct contact with the respiratory secretionseg sneezing or coughing, ”reads the website of the German Ministry of Health. He adds: “People who, for example, have been to the Same room with an infected person in the last two weeks, but has not had close contact, it is generally not necessary to quarantine. “The term” generally “is used because, as in Italy with the Asl, it is always the health department a to establish you have to quarantine. The procedure changes slightly for those returning from a considered area risk: in this case there is the obligation of domestic isolation, which can be interrupted once the negative result of a buffer.
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Coronavirus, France more than 20 thousand new cases. In the UK more than 13 thousand. Europe exceeds 100,000 infections in one day: it has never happened
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