[ad_1]
Stefano Guidi via Getty Images
March 23, April 11. The data of the new infections registered yesterday -4458 new positives, 22 deaths, 128,098 swabs, another 21 hospitalized in intensive care – triggered the race to return, back, to the most critical days of the emergency. On Saturday, April 11, more or less similar figures were detected, at least with regard to new infections. In the Civil Protection bulletin there were 4,614 more positives and the head of Civil Protection, Angelo Borrelli, explained that the swabs made had been 56,000. There were 3381 patients in intensive care, 619 deaths, 3381 patients hospitalized in intensive care. In social networks, for its part, there is a photo of a sheet written in ballpoint pen that shows the data of March 23, when the new cases were 4,789, the deaths 602, the swabs performed 17,066 and those hospitalized in intensive care rose to 3204 out of 3009 the day before. .
Are we going back to six, seven months ago? Not quite.
Trying to go a bit beyond the numbers, but the only analogy is in the new cases detected, and returning to the context, we realize that the scenario is different. Completely. Starting from the not insignificant fact that at that time, on March 23 and April 11, the country was completely closed, and therefore bars, clubs, offices, schools were closed.
Another element of difference lies in the fact that swabs were made then only for symptomatic patients, whereas today they are also made for those who have few or no symptoms, “the asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic” of which scientists and technicians speak. Which, of course, increases the probability of identifying people infected with Sars Cov2. Today, unlike what happened six or seven months ago, it spread throughout the country.
Not in vain, at the press conference in Civil Protection, then the usual appointment, every day at 18, on March 23, the president of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Silvio Brusaferro, underlining “the strong circulation of the virus in the northern regions, explained that “The bet, in our country, is to ensure that these epidemic curves -whose increase at the time of infections detected in Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, Piedmont, ed- do not reproduce in the regions of the south ”. Lost bet: today, in fact, the virus circulates throughout the country and the conditions in some southern regions, first of all Campania, are a great concern. Like what, if the current trend continues, it could happen within two weeks.
“No comparisons can be made between the current figures and those of March – April for a very simple reason – explains to HuffPost Giorgio Sestili, physicist, founder and curator along with other analysts on the Facebook page. “Coronavirus: scientific data and analysis“ – Today we know with certainty that the data recorded seven eight months ago was five six times more. The 150,000 tests carried out in the seroprevalence campaign carried out by the Ministry of Health Istat and the Istituto Superiore di Sanitto have shown that compared to the 230,000 positives officially registered in Italy, 1.5 million people have been infected. So the March to April data is completely underestimated.
In addition, continues Sestili, the lethality has changed in percentage termsto of the virus. At that time it was around 14%, in summer it fell below‘The 1% today is between 0.65 and 1%. And then today there is a completely different spread dynamic, the virus circulates throughout the country, there are no regions with zero infections ”.
And the projections are far from reassuring. “Concern about the current situation – Sestili points out – refers to the certainty that the‘there will be an increase in new infectionsto in an increase in the number of people admitted to hospitals and intensive care units and in deaths. Looking at what could happen if there were‘The trend is still the current one, starting from the consideration that the virus has doubling times of around 15 days, it can be hypothesized – concludes Sestili – that in 2 weeks we could reach 10,000 new cases per day“.
[ad_2]
