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Yesterday in Italy 4458 new cases of coronavirus: There were not so many since last April 11 when, in full confinement, the infections were 4,694. In social networks – as usual – there has been controversy about the way in which the Italian media treat news related to the pandemic. In short, we really have to worry or the situation is under control and such exaggerate Is it just the newspapers? Let’s see how things are.
Coronavirus, what has changed today compared to April
The fact that in April the health situation was very different is a fact: deaths from Covid, to cite the most striking data, it was 619 against 22 yesterday.
Patients in intensive care they were 3,381 while today there are 358. The number of hospitalized patients with symptoms is not even remotely comparable: 28,144 versus 3,925. Our ability to find new positives has improved dramatically – only 56,609 swabs had been processed on April 11, less than half of what we can do today. And again: the relationship between swabs performed and identified cases was 8.3% yesterday and stood at 3.5%. Finally, the capacity to care for the seriously ill has increased significantly: at the beginning of the pandemic there were just over 5,000 places in intensive care, today there are more than 10,000.
Coronavirus, why do we have to worry?
All good? In conclusion. Although the situation is not comparable to that of the worst period of the pandemic, today’s figures are far from reassuring. Meanwhile, it should be noted that in April, after the closure, the number of people hospitalized in intensive care had entered a declining phase, while now the curve is slowly (but inexorably) rising.
Even the number of hospitalizations It has been increasing steadily for weeks. The situation in the hospitals is still under control, but some signs of stress are already beginning to appear. According to Walter Ricciardi, a consultant to the Ministry of Health, in the hospitals of Lazio and Campania the places in sub-intensive care “are already being saturated”.
The relationship between swabs and proven cases
And then there is that numerino, the relationship between swabs and detected infections represented by a spy should not be overlooked. In the months of March and April this value often exceeded 10%. This means that the health system was able to intercept only a part of the people positive for the coronavirus who in fact they were much more in number compared to officially registered cases.
With the closure and the collapse of the cases, the situation has radically improved, but as the Gimbe Foundation reported yesterday “since mid-July the new weekly cases have multiplied by more than ten (from just over 1,400 to over 17,000) , with an increase in positives / cases analyzed from 0.8% to 4% “.
In short, we run the risk of losing contact with the epidemic again. “The increase in the proportion of positive / proven cases – explained the president of Gimbe, Nino Cartabellotta – confirms that the virus circulates in a more sustainable way: therefore, in regions where it exceeds 5%, it is crucial to strengthen testing activities and tracking “.
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We are not (yet) in the conditions of March and April and today we can count on a great amount of means and experiences that we simply did not have in the first phase of the epidemic. But it is also good not to have any illusions: the virus, as virologists often repeat, is always the same.
