Covid in Italy. Ricciardi: “In November we risk 16 thousand cases a day.” Quarantine hypothesis reduced to 10 days – La Stampa



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ROME. “The limitations of movement between the Regions cannot be excluded, nothing can be excluded at this time. We must defend work and health at all costs. Mobility between regions must be safeguarded, but the situation must be monitored on a day-to-day basis. As soon as a warning light is lit, we must intervene. Thus the Minister of Regional Affairs, Francesco Boccia. While Stefano Bonaccini, president of Emilia-Romagna and of the Conference of Regions, warns on Radio 24: “if the contagion increases and we find more worrying situations, we will have to be prepared for greater restrictions”. For Bonaccini there is no risk of a Regions-Government clash, “we will all be responsible, I see no other way than to work together, that is why we ask for the control room” with the Government and local organizations.

Ricciardi on SkyTg24: “Reduction of quarantine in German model with two pads”

For his part, Walter Ricciardi, a member of the executive committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) and consultant to the Minister of Health, says that in November we were risking 16,000 cases a day and “that we recommend reducing the quarantine to 10 days.” “What has happened since June is a doubling of cases every month. We had 200 cases, then 400, then 800, then 1600 and now we are in more than 4 thousand cases. So we run the risk in a month of having more than 8,000 cases a day and in two months, when the flu arrives, of having 16,000 cases in a day. Walter Ricciardi, a member of the executive committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) and a consultant to the Minister of Health, told Buongiorno on Sky TG24.

Coronavirus, Ricciardi: “It’s a different situation, I think we can rule out a confinement like the last months”

And for that very reason, says the WHO exponent, “we are thinking of all the measures that, based on scientific evidence, allow us to avoid situations that cause unjustified meetings. At this moment there is no hypothesis of closure of establishments or commercial activities, but we are thinking about which activities include unjustified meetings of non-primary activities, which may be limited in some way ”.

New Dpcm, in which cases should the mask be used?

Ricciardi again: “In our opinion, the quarantine can be reduced to 10 days as it is done in Germany, with one swab instead of two swabs. It is something we are saying as scientific advisers to Minister Speranza and I hope the Government will take it into account. And finally: “We are analyzing – he explained – what Germany has done, which has reduced the quarantine of suspects from 14 to 10 days with a single negative swab to authorize the end of the quarantine.

Coronavirus, the curve that shows where the epidemic is in Italy

It is a hypothesis that can be taken into consideration, it must be evaluated by the CTS and then it can be deliberated. From the point of view “of the scientific evidence something is lost, but it allows easier handling of the epidemic at this moment in which the cases are more than 4 thousand a day”.

School closings hypothesis
Riccardi also spoke on the hypothesis of the closure of the school “which is absolutely necessary to avoid and a general closure must be absolutely avoided. At this moment there is no hypothesis of the closure of establishments or commercial activities, we are only thinking about what are the possible activities that involve unjustified gatherings of non-primary activities that may be limited in some way ”.

The case of Lombardy
«The fatality of Covid-19 in northern Italy was peculiar. In Lombardy it was the highest in the world, the fatality rate in the region was double that of Belgium, which was the worst. An impressive excess of mortality from all points of view, especially in the elderly “underlines the adviser to the Minister of Health for the Covid-19 emergency in his video intervention at the national congress of the Italian Society of Neonatology (Sin), which was celebrated in Venice. “In Lombardy, in the first part of the epidemic, the virus had an extremely important spread and to a certain extent exponential. Today we have substantially the same virulence and pathogenicity of the beginning all over the world.”

The virus does not mutate

The virus responsible for Covid-19 “has not changed, except marginally. Virulence and pathogenicity are the same as at the beginning of the pandemic throughout the world. This is very strong scientific evidence, which has been altered by some statements also from authorized colleagues, especially doctors who have not understood well that the patients they see, the numerator, does not correspond to the absolute truth but to an important input that must be related to the denominator of the population »says Ricciardi.” the World Health Organization, yesterday was the worst day both in terms of the number of infections and, unfortunately, of deaths “, recalls Ricciardi.

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