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In the last seven days, 20,989 cases of coronavirus infection have been registered in Italy, 54 percent more than in the previous seven days: a percentage increase higher than those registered in recent weeks. Although the contagion situation in Italy is still much better than in countries such as France, Spain and the United Kingdom, here we have explained why, the growing trend is clear. To find a similar number of infections, in Italy, we must go back to the second half of April: but then far fewer were discovered, because the testing capacity was limited and the vast majority of asymptomatic people escaped the counts.
– Read also: Why has it been better in Italy so far?
Deaths also increased compared to the previous week, although to a lesser extent: they were 165, 20 percent more. The death toll today is similar to what was recorded between late June and early July. As we have seen in recent months, the increase in deaths follows that of infections in a few weeks, up to a month. But the fatality rate recorded by COVID-19 has changed dramatically, compared to the first months of the epidemic: because today we discover many more infections, and therefore the percentage of people with the coronavirus who die of the total of positives is very less.
The latest weekly report from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità is dated October 2, and reported that “14 sources had been reported in which transmission could have occurred in the school environment, although currently it is not always confirmed”, specifying that it is still It takes a few weeks to understand the impact of the reopening of schools on the advance of the epidemic.
It has often been said that data on hospitalizations is more reliable to get an idea of the real trend of the epidemic, than data on infections: because 2,000 new positives today are not the same as 2,000 infected in April, as we know. In general, this is true, but at least you have to be a little careful when reading the data of inmates who are not in the ICU. Today, all hospitalized people are tested, even for health problems independent of COVID-19, so, for example, a person who has broken a leg and is positive and asymptomatic also ends up in the hospitalization count . But these cases should be a minority, so the admissions figure is still pretty indicative. And it is even more so than in patients in intensive care. It continues to grow and we currently have 3,925 patients in non-intensive rooms and 358 in intensive rooms.
One piece of information that must be taken into account is the percentage of positive cases per 100 swabs performed: because it gives an idea of the extent of the test operations and how much the real size of the infection is controlled in the territory. In March, when it wasn’t at all, we found up to one in four positive swabs. Everything has changed since then, and today we are just over 3 percent of the total positive swabs. But it is a growing figure, and there are regions, such as Campania, where it is significantly higher, above 6 percent. More or less above 10 percent becomes very worrying.
Campania also remains the region with the highest weekly infections. It has become the one that generates the most concerns in Italy, although in the last seven days Lombardy has also registered many infections, more than 2,500, after several weeks of relative stability. Lazio and Veneto are just behind, but to have had bad numbers this week were also Piedmont and Tuscany, where the new positives discovered have more than doubled.
The number of tests has grown and has set a new record since the start of the pandemic, surpassing the average of 100,000 per day for the first time.
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